Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back wins for RB Leipzig and Lazio

Leipzig mascot
Red Bulls to beat Bayer

After all three tips landed last weekend for a 13/2 treble, the Infogol analysts return with their best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select this weekend's best treble...

"Bayer Leverkusen have a huge job on their hands in stopping this Leipzig attack, which have been averaging huge 2.05 xGF per game."

Both to score at Montilivi

Girona vs Leganes
Saturday, 19.45
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Girona come into this game on the back of a very fortunate 1-0 win over Valencia last weekend, a game in which they rode their luck throughout, but somehow came away with three points (xG: VAL 3.40 - 0.40 GIR).

Eusebio Sacristán's side are very entertaining to watch, creating good chances in matches at an average of 1.28 xGF, while also conceding plenty on a regular basis at an average of 1.85 xGA.

They will create good chances in this match, while also conceding them - just like their opponents.

infogol leg vs atl shot map.png

Leganes got a point against Atletico Madrid last weekend, though were unfortunate not to have collected all three points according to expected goals (xG: LEG 1.20 - 0.43 ATL).

They sit 18th in the table at this early stage, but their performances have warranted more, with Leganes sitting 11th on Infogol's expected goals table.

Expect and entertaining game at Estadi Montilivi, with both sides hitting the net.

RBL to add to B04 woes

RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 14.30
Live on BT Sports and Betfair Live Video

RB Leipzig extended their unbeaten run in the league to nine matches with an impressive victory over Hertha Berlin last weekend, a game in which they generated a host of chances and deserving of the win (xG: HER 1.43 - 3.23 RBL).

They now sit fourth in the Bundesliga, and according to expected goals, they are unfortunate not to be higher, having been the second-best team in the league.

Bayer Leverkusen have a huge job on their hands in stopping this Leipzig attack, which have been averaging huge 2.05 xGF per game.

Leverkusen still languish in the bottom half of the table following a 4-1 defeat at home to Hoffenheim last time out.

Though they were unfortunate to lose that game (xG: B04 1.99 - 1.66 HOF), they are deserving of being so low in the table, being only the 13th best team according to expected goals.

Their issues have been defensively, conceding an average of 1.62 xGA per game, and it's hard to make a case for them keeping Leipzig at bay here, and so backing the home side to win is the selection.

Lazio to keep pace

Sassuolo vs Lazio
Sunday, 17.00
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Sassuolo ended a four-match winless run with a deserved victory over Chievo last weekend, a game in which they conceded few chances - for a change - albeit against the team rock bottom of the table.

They are very fortunate to be sat in sixth position after 11 matches, with performances not warranting the results they have been getting.

To say they are sixth, Sassuolo actually have a negative expected goal difference (-0.22 xGD) which is not a good sign, and suggests they won't hang around the European places.

infogol laz vs spal shot map.png

Lazio sit fifth in the league following a comfortable home win over SPAL last weekend, a 4-1 success in which they once again created plenty of chances (xG: LAZ 2.68 - 0.92 SPA).

The Romans are averaging an impressive 1.81 xGF per game this season, so can be expected to cause Sassuolo plenty of problems here, and the home side represent good value to get all three points here.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 33pts
Returned: 39.57pts
P+L: +6.57pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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