Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Getafe and Hannover to bring home 11/1 treble

Getafe celebrate goal
Getafe to celebrate a win
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Infogol's analysts return with their best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced treble...

"Getafe sit 12th in the La Liga table after 13 matches, though they have been very unfortunate so far this season, with them having been the fifth best team in the league according to expected goals."

Hannover to get much-needed win

Hannover vs Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Live on BT Sports and Betfair Live Video

Hannover come into this game fourth from bottom of the Bundesliga after 12 matches, having won just one of their last five matches.

While that may look bad on paper, it is worth noting that they have faced Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke and Borussia Mönchengladbach, so haven't had an easy schedule.

Even with this tough run of games, they have been creating chances in matches (averaging 1.07 xGF per game in their last five games).

Hertha Berlin have been the most fortunate team in the Bundesliga, as they currently sit 8th in the league, but have been the second worst team in the league according to expected goals.

They have been the worst defensive team in the league this season, conceding an average of 2.13 xGA per game, so are hugely vulnerable, meaning backing the home team to get the win represents good value.

Getafe to get win

Getafe vs Espanyol
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Getafe sit 12th in the La Liga table after 13 matches, though they have been very unfortunate so far this season, with them having been the fifth best team in the league according to expected goals.

They were very unfortunate not to have beaten Athletic Bilbao last weekend, as they once again created a host of chances, as José Bordalás' side have averaged 1.40 xGF per game over their last five matches.

Espanyol currently occupy fifth spot in La Liga, but have lost their last two league games, and have deservedly done so after two poor defensive displays against Sevilla and Girona.

In their last two matches, they have conceded 6.92 xGA, which is a lot of big chances to allow, and if they continue performing this poorly then they will struggle to win matches.

Backing the home side to get the win here represents great value.

Udinese to extend Sassuolo's poor run

Sassuolo vs Udinese
Sunday, 14.00
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Sassuolo come into this game on the back of just one win in seven matches, as their process has taken a real turn for the worse.

They have been second-best six of those seven matches according to expected goals, conceding an average of 1.32 xGA per game while creating an average of just 1.07 xGF - so something needs to change.

Udinese ended a seven-match winless run with victory over Roma last time out, and that win was coming, with their performances better than the results they attained.

There isn't much between these two sides in Infogol's expected goals table, with both performing similarly so far this season.

With that in mind, backing the visitors to get something in a tight game is the selection.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 39pts
Returned: 43.13pts
P+L: +4.13pts

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