Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Barca to drop points in a 7/1 treble

Barcelona manager Ernesto Valverde
Ernesto Valverde may see his side fail to win again
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Infogol's analysts are back with their best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced Sunday treble...

"Compared to previous seasons, Barcelona’s process isn’t what it has been, and it has in fact been getting worst: 2016/17 – 2.42 xGF and 0.91 xGA per game, 2017/18 – 2.63 xGF and 1.28 xGA per game and 2018/19 – 2.28 xGF and 1.34 xGA per game."

More woes for Frosinone

Sampdoria vs Frosinone
Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Sampdoria were beaten comfortably by Napoli last weekend (xG: NAP 1.89 - 0.71 SAM), a 3-0 defeat that not only leaves them now two points off the top six, but one that ended Fabio Quagliarella's 11 match scoring streak in Serie A.

They have now won just one of their last four matches, though continue to be an entertaining team to watch, having seen 10 of their last 13 games go over 2.5 goals.

Sampdoria both create and concede good chances in matches, and the same can be said for their struggling opponents here.

Things are looking bleak for Frosinone, who sit second bottom of the table and five points from safety following a 1-0 defeat at Lazio, their fifth defeat in eight league games.

Frosinone have been the worst team in the league according to expected goals, and concede plenty of chances (1.58 xGA per game), so backing goals in this game is the selection.

Augsburg to back up last week's win

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
Sunday, 14:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

Werder Bremen have gone off the boil in recent weeks, having won just one of their last six Bundesliga games following a fair 1-1 draw with struggling Nürnberg last weekend (xG: NUR 0.98 - 1.00 WER).

This poor run of form has left them in 10th position, and that is pretty much where they deserve to be according to expected goals, as their process is that of a mid-table team - especially defensively, as they have conceded an average of 1.72 xGA per game.

Augsburg are on a massive high this week following a huge win over Mainz last time out, a deserved 3-0 win that ended a 10-match winless run (xG: AUG 3.06 - 0.18 MAI).

In fact, Augsburg are a much better team than their 15th position would suggest, as according to expected goals they have been better than Werder Bremen, having been the 9th best team in the Bundesliga.

They shouldn't be underestimated here, as they have a superior process to that of Werder, so backing the visitors to get something from this game represents good value.

More points dropped by Barca

Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona
Sunday, 19:45 GMT
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Athletic Bilbao have pulled themselves clear of the relegation places after winning four in a seven-match unbeaten run, though that was ended by Basque rivals Real Sociedad last weekend, but Bilbao didn't deserve to lose according to expected goals (xG: SOC 1.36 - 1.86 BIL).

They have climbed up to 12th in La Liga, though such is the nature of the table this season that they remain just three points above the relegation zone, meaning they need to continue to pick up points to avoid being pulled back into the mix.

Bilbao's underlying stats aren't bad this season, and defensively they have been only marginally worse than their opponents here, conceding an average of 1.41 xGA per game compared to Barcelona's 1.34.

Ernesto Valverde saw his side's eight match winning streak in La Liga come to an end at the hands of Valencia last weekend, though they were very fortunate to get anything from the game in what was a very poor performance (xG: BAR 2.08 - 3.15 VAL).

Compared to previous seasons, Barcelona's process isn't what it has been, and it has in fact been getting worst: 2016/17 - 2.42 xGF and 0.91 xGA per game, 2017/18 - 2.63 xGF and 1.28 xGA per game and 2018/19 - 2.28 xGF and 1.34 xGA per game.

This isn't a good sign for the Catalonians, and they could again be vulnerable here, so backing a solid Bilbao side to get something is the selection.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 60pts
Returned: 60.61pts
P+L: +0.61pts

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