Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back Eibar to bring home 10/1 treble

Sergi Enrich celebrates for Eibar
Eibar can get another win

Infogol's analysts return with their best bets across the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced treble...

"They have a goal difference of -4, but their expected goal difference is an impressive 8.81 – a difference of 12.81 – as they have been extremely unfortunate in both attack and defence this season."

Eibar to make it back-to-back wins

Leganes vs Eibar
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Leganes are hovering just two points above the relegation zone following a deserved defeat against Barcelona last time out, meaning they have now won just one of their last six La Liga matches.

According to expected goals, they are unfortunate not to be higher in the table, though they have had plenty of struggles in attack this season, generating an average of just 1.23 xGF per game.

Eibar come into this game as one of La Liga's most unfortunate teams, having been the fifth best side so far and sitting down in 11th place.

They have a goal difference of -4, but their expected goal difference is an impressive 8.81 - a difference of 12.81 - as they have been extremely unfortunate in both attack and defence this season.

Los Armeros have scored just 24 goals this season, but according to the chances they have been creating, they should have hit the net closer to 36 times (35.60 xGF).

Eibar's underlying stats are far better than their actual league position reflects, and they shouldn't be underestimated in any match, and they are fancied to win here, with the 15/8 on offer representing good value.

Stuttgart not to be routed

Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart
Sunday, 14:30 GMT
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

Bayern Munich picked up where they left off before Germany's winter break, thumping Hoffenheim 3-1 last weekend (xG: HOF 1.33 - 4.19 BAY), extending their winning streak to six Bundesliga games.

Despite this good run of form, Niko Kovač's side still find themselves six points behind Dortmund, though according to expected goals, Bayern have been the best team in the league this season, and Dortmund have been fortunate in matches.

Many people will be expecting them to rout struggling Stuttgart, but, while they may win comfortably, it may not turn into a huge win.

Stuttgart are struggling near the bottom of the table, but aren't as bad as their results would suggest, having a goal difference of -24, while their xGD is only -8.28 - so are a much tougher opposition than may be expected.

While this is most likely going to be a home win, don't expect a lorry load of goals, with under 3.5 goals looking a good bet at 6/5.

Tight game in Turin

Torino vs Inter Milan
Sunday, 17:00 GMT
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Torino have had a tough time of late, having won just one of their last six matches, though in that time they have played all of AC Milan, Juventus, Lazio and Roma.

They sit 11th in the table following that run of form, and are one of the teams in Serie A that don't create a lot of chances (1.16 xGF per game), while also conceding very few (1.24 xGA per game) - so are extremely hard to break down.

Inter Milan occupy third place after a five-match unbeaten run, in which they have won three, though all have been extremely tight affairs - three 1-0's, one 1-1 and a 0-0 against Sassuolo last time out.

Defensively they have really impressed in that time, conceding an average of just 0.73 xGA per game, so haven't been giving their opponents a sniff.

However, they appear to have lost their balance, as although they are tighter defensively, going forward the goals haven't flowed as much as early in the season, and so backing a low-scoring game in Turin is the selection.

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Infogol's 2018/19 Euro P+L

Staked: 54pts
Returned: 58.81pts
P+L: +4.81pts

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