Infogol's Weekend Euro Tips: Back goals at BayArena

Leverkusen fans
Leverkusen fans should expect goals

The Infogol experts return with a look at the European action, using expected goals (xG) data to select this weekend's best treble...

"Defensively Bayer have been very poor, conceding an average of 1.85 xGA per game so far this season, something that is expected to be exposed again in this game."

High-scoring game at BayArena

Bayer Leverkusen vs Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

Bayer Leverkusen have won their last two matches following a very slow start, but their performances continue to be concerning.

They were far from impressive against Mainz in their last home game, winning 1-0, and were very fortunate to win against Fortuna Düsseldorf in midweek (xG: FOR 1.80 - 1.14 B04).

Defensively Bayer have been very poor, conceding an average of 1.85 xGA per game so far this season, something that is expected to be exposed again in this game.

Dortmund are hot on the heels of Bayern Munich at the top of the table after a good start, winning three and drawing the other two of their five games.

A 7-0 win in midweek over Nürnberg flattered Lucien Favre's side, but they were deserved winners after a good display (xG: DOR 1.83 - 0.19 NUR).

Averaging 1.72 xGF in attack, Dortmund have the capabilities to cause Leverkusen all sorts of problems here, and backing a high-scoring game is the selection.

Inter to win in shutout

Inter Milan vs Cagliari
Saturday, 19:30
Live on Eleven Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

Inter Milan have made an up-and-down start to the Serie A season, winning three, losing two and drawing the other of their six matches.

Victory over Fiorentina in midweek was deserved, and followed a 1-0 success over Sampdoria last weekend, in which they showcased their defensive qualities (xG: SAM 0.54 - 0.89 INT).

So far this season, their best asset has been their defence, conceding an average of just 0.99 xGA, while with players like Mauro Icardi and Ivan Perišić, they will continue to create chances (averaging 1.42 xGF per game).

Cagliari have won just once so far this season, a surprising albeit fortunate win over Atalanta (xG: ATA 0.39 - 0.26 CAG).

They were very fortunate to come away with a point against Sampdoria in midweek, as they once again showcased their defensive frailties (xG: CAG 1.04 - 2.27 SAM).

In attack, they have been toothless so far, averaging just 0.82 xGF per game, so backing Inter Milan to win to nil looks a good bet at a decent price.

Girona to beat lowly Huesca

Huesca vs Girona
Sunday, 11:00
Live on Eleven Sports and Betfair Live Video

Huesca, after picking up four points from their first two matches, have been brought back down to earth with a bump, losing their next four by an aggregate score of 13-2.

A 3-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid in midweek was a harsh score line (xG: ATM 1.15 - 1.10 HUE), but it was enough to see them sink to the bottom of the La Liga table.

They have been conceding good chances on a consistent basis, an average of 1.76 xGA per game, something they have to improve on if they are to stay up this season.


Girona have made a steady start to the season, picking up eight points from their first six games, but were deservedly beaten 1-0 by Real Betis in midweek (xG: GIR 1.16 - 1.53 BET).

That defeat followed wins over Villarreal and Celta Vigo, and a deserved draw at the Nou Camp against Barcelona (xG: BAR 1.94 - 1.54 GIR).

This Girona side shouldn't be underestimated in any match this season, and they look excellent value to get the three points in this game.

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