Football Bet of the Day: Defy the market and back a snooze in Sweden

Kev hopes he hasn't made an ass of himself with tonight's wager
Kev hopes he hasn't made an ass of himself with tonight's wager
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Kevin Hatchard returns to guide us around the betting world, and we begin this week's quest in Sweden.

"Elfsborg are chasing a third consecutive clean sheet at home, while just six of Hammarby's last 15 away games have seen both teams find the net."

Back No in the Both Teams To Score market at [2.72]

Elfsborg v Hammarby
Monday July 17, 18:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Success in Scandinavia for our pal Tobias last night, as Haugesund's 2-0 win over Aalesunds stayed under the 2.5 Goals line.

Buoyed by his success, we'll stay in that part of the world, but we'll just hop across to Sweden. Elfsborg are playing fellow mid-table side Hammarby in the top-flight Allsvenskan.

The market expects goals here, but I'm not sure the prices on offer for No in the Both Teams to Score market at Under 2.5 Goals should be as big as they are. No in BTTS is [2.72], while unders is trading at [2.58].

It's BTTS that I'll focus on. Firstly, the hosts have kept clean sheets in their last two home matches, and if you stretch back further you see they have managed three shut-outs in their last six games at the Boras Arena.

Hammarby have drawn a blank in five of their last 14 away games in the league. Both teams have found the net in just six of their last 15 road matches in the Allsvenskan.

Of course, the price is [2.72] for a reason. Elfsborg are the division's top scorers, and there have been plenty of goals between these sides in recent meetings. However, Elfsborg have been pretty solid at home recently, and Hammarby have only netted eight goals in seven away games. The price seems big to me, and I'm happy to swing for the fences.

Recommended Bet
Back No in the Both Teams To Score market at [2.72]

2017 P/L

Points Staked: 101

Points Returned: 99.46

P/L: -1.54 points

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