The action comes from Paraguay tonight as Paul Robinson thinks that new kids on the block, Deportivo Santani, can upset the established, Libertad.
"History shows us that newly promoted teams can often ride their previous season’s momentum into the new campaign."
Deportivo Santani v Libertad
Friday February 13, 23:10 GMT
It's been a rise to the top from their inception in 2009 as Deportivo Santani currently top the Paraguayan Primera Division. While we are only two games into the season, the achievement cannot be taken away from them - especially considering they were only promoted thanks to a penalty shoot-out win back in November.
A victory at home and a draw away is an excellent start for Robert Gauto's side and although they face the defending champions tonight, their confidence levels couldn't be any higher right now. History shows us that newly promoted teams can often ride their previous season's momentum into the new campaign.
Libertad opened up with a hugely disappointing defeat at home to Cerro Porteno but made amends on Saturday with a 1-0 success over Rubio Nu, again in front of their own fans.
Pedro Sarabia's men will believe that they're a cut above this opposition, but this will be far from easy. They have won their last four on the road - all to nil - but prior to that it was seven losses and a draw from eight fixtures in all competitions.
The visitors are the worthy favourites but I wouldn't fancy backing them at such a short price. That's why, with Libertad trading at around the 1.528/15 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Libertad v Deportivo Santani @ 1.528/15
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 42 pts
Returned: 31.96 pts
P/L: - 10.04 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)