We're starting a new week in Spain, and Kevin Hatchard anticipates fireworks, as a big club stares down the barrel of relegation.
"Deportivo have the worst defensive record in the league, so it's no surprise that nine of their last 12 league games have featured at least three goals."
Need for victory should lead to goals
Deportivo La Coruna v Fuenlabrada
Monday 20 July, 20:00
Defences in Iceland didn't quite melt as much as Tobias wanted them to yesterday, as Valur's 2-1 win at Breidablik left him a goal short. That said, he did land 5/7 winners, so he can just about afford a drink.
We'll head to Spain for our first assignment, because Deportivo La Coruna are in serious danger of being relegated to the third tier, and they face a Fuenlabrada side that could qualify for the promotion playoffs.
Depor have lost their last three matches, a run that has seen them slip into the relegation zone ahead of the final day. Their 3-2 loss to Extremadura eight days ago was their first home defeat since early December, a case of disastrous timing if ever there was one. As has been the case all season for the Galicians, the defence failed them - Depor have leaked a league-high 59 goals, and 28 of those have gone in at the Riazor.
Deportivo would've loved a final game against a team who had nothing to play for, but Fuenlabrada are on form and pushing hard for promotion. Coach Jose Ramon Sandoval was appointed on the eve of lockdown, and has delivered an extraordinary run of five wins and three draws, including a recent victory at league leaders Cadiz. They can't slack off now, as they know that Elche (who they beat 3-1 in their most recent match) can still catch them if they slip up.
Depor probably have to win to stay up, and even then they might need favours from elsewhere. They seem too short to me at 2.26/5 to take the win, and given Fuenlabrada's form, you could legitimately back the visitors Draw No Bet at 2.77/4 or back Draw and Away in the Double Chance market at 1.84/5.
However, I'm going for Over 2.5 Goals at 2.3611/8. Depor can't afford to hang back, and it's worth noting that nine of their last 12 games at the Riazor have featured three goals or more, including the last four. Fuenlabrada have rattled in ten goals in their last five league games, and hanging back might be a dangerous strategy for them too.
Points Staked: 103
Points Returned: 84.08
P/L: -18.92 points
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Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.3611/8