Paul Robinson makes a rare trip to Sweden today as he thinks that the Superettan fixture between Degerfors and Sirius will be lower scoring than what the Betfair markets are predicting.
"Interestingly, the three draws were all 0-0 and while the defeat was a seven goal thriller, I would make that the exception and not the rule."
Degerfors v Sirius
Tuesday May 26, 18:20 BST
The hosts come into this clash in decent form having won four of their last five games. The dozen points earned have seen them climb to fifth in the table and if they win by two goals or more this evening, they will move into the promotion places.
Opponents, Sirius, have also enjoyed some good results of late as they have taken seven points from a possible nine since a defeat to Ljungskile at the beginning of the month. They are currently in fourth place - ahead of Degerfors on goal difference only - and they will also go third with a win.
It's the goals that we're interested in today and while it might appear on face value that we are in for plenty, I wouldn't be so sure. Patrik Werner's side have played four times on home soil this term and three of them have gone under 2.5. They've kept two clean sheets in a row but have only scored more than twice themselves on one occasion.
Kim Bergstrand takes his men to Stora Valla with a record of three draws and a loss on the road this year. Interestingly, the three draws were all 0-0 and while the defeat was a seven goal thriller, I would make that the exception and not the rule.
The last time these clubs met the score was 1-1 and I wouldn't rule out something similar today. That's why, with over 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.9110/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Degerfors v Sirius @ 1.9110/11
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 142 pts
Returned: 113.97 pts
P/L: - 28.03 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)