The Daily Acca: Goals at a premium in the Champions League

Celtic manager - Brendan Rodgers
Brendan Rodgers will be desperate for a clean sheet
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The Daily Acca starts with a Champions League fixture and ends with the South American equivalent and the whole thing pays around the 7/2 mark. Here are Paul Robinson's selections:

- Back Under 2.5 Goals in Celtic v AEK Athens @ 4/7
- Back Under 2.5 Goals in Ceara v Santos @ 1/2
- Back Flamengo @ 10/11

The Acca pays approximately 7/2

Cagey affair expected at Parkhead

Bet 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Celtic v AEK Athens @ 4/7 - KO 19:45 BST

This is the third Qualifying Round for the Champions League and whoever progresses will be just two games away from the Group Stage.

The first of two legs between Celtic and AEK Athens comes from Glasgow and I'm quite convinced that it will be a low-scoring affair. Brendan Rodgers' side held out for a 0-0 at Rosenborg in the previous round, and while the first leg on this ground finished 3-1, I very much doubt that they will be wanting to make the same mistake of conceding an away goal.

The main reason for this selection however is their opponents - AEK Athens. The Greek champions conceded a mere 12 goals in their 30 game season last year, and with 50 scored themselves, their matches averaged 2.07 goals each time.

Two thirds of their outings saw this selection land, and in their 15 away fixtures, they netted 18 and conceded seven - which is an average of 1.67 goals per 90 minutes.

Frankie Monkhouse has an alternative view on this game.


More of the same for Ceara and Santos

Bet 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Ceara v Santos @ 1/2 - KO 23:30 BST

After 16 matches of the Brazilian Serie A campaign you would have expected to see Ceara in the bottom four, but you certainly wouldn't have envisioned Santos also occupying the relegation zone.

It's been a miserable campaign for and following a 0-0 draw at Chapecoense, manager, Jair Ventura was given the boot. Cuca is the man that the board have turned to and this is his second spell as manager - the first being in 2008.

Cuca has been in charge for two outings to date - a 1-0 defeat at home to Cruzeiro in the Copa do Brasil and a 0-0 draw at Botafogo in the league. Those two scorelines were their sixth and seventh in a row to be under 2.5 goals, and with stability the aim, I can't imagine a huge turnaround in that respect too quickly.

The hosts picked up a huge victory at Parana on Sunday - one that I wasn't expecting - and what it meant was that they leapfrogged their opponents into 19th. After going 13 matches without a win this term, they have now won three of their last four, but it's worth noting that they have still only scored eight goals in total this year.

Overall their matches are averaging 1.81 goals each time, and 11 of their 16 have seen this selection land - including four of their last five on this ground.


All-Brazilian Copa Libertadores fixture to go to the hosts

Bet 3: Back Flamengo @ 10/11 - KO 01:45 BST (Thurs)

Flamengo were ousted at the top of the Brazilian top flight at the weekend but they turn their attentions to continental matters now as they take on countrymen, Cruzeiro, in the first leg of their last 16 Copa Libertadores tie.

This should be a really good battle between two sides who don't have too much between them. In the league, Flamengo have picked up nine more points than Cruzeiro, but it's quite a competitive division that could be won by one of six or seven clubs.

That being said, the visitors tonight have gone three without a win in the league - two defeats and a draw - and they were away at Vitoria on Sunday, whereas the hosts have had an extra days rest.

I am also enamoured with 'Big Mengo's' home results as they have been beaten just the once in all competitions this season, and five of their last six have been wins.

2018/19 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 48pts
Returned: 25.22pts
P/L: -22.78pts

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