The Daily Acca: Don't believe the Sevilla hype

Vincenzo Montella's Sevilla haven't been at their best this season
Vincenzo Montella's Sevilla haven't been at their best this season

Paul Robinson was one goal away from an 8/1 winner yesterday and he's looking to bounce back with a 10/1 shot today. Here are his selections:

- Back The Draw in Sevilla v Man United @ 23/10
- Back Derby @ 20/23
- Back BTTS in Shakhtar v Roma @ 4/5

The Acca pays approximately 10/1

Bet 1: Back The Draw in Sevilla v Man United @ 23/10 - KO 19:45 GMT

The hosts come into this last 16 tie on the back of three straight wins, but I must admit, I'm not buying what the pundits are selling when it comes to their form. There has been a lot of talk that Sevilla are back to their best and have dramatically improved following a poor start to the campaign, but the evidence doesn't exactly back that up.

Their three latest victories were all narrow ones and they were only over leganes, Girona and Las Palmas. Prior to that it had been three wins in seven in all competitions - five in 14 - and they were thrashed 5-1 by Eibar at the beginning of this month.

Man United aren't exactly firing on all cylinders either but we know exactly how Jose Mourinho will approach this game and I expect a very defensive performance with lots of pace on the break.

It should be a pretty even match and the draw seems like good value.

Bet 2: Back Derby @ 20/23 - KO 19:45 GMT

The Rams are beginning to falter at a crucial stage of the season as they have won just one of their last five Championship matches and now trail Cardiff in second by three points.

Gary Rowett's men badly need the three points this evening and they couldn't face a team in much worse form. Leeds have gone nine without a win in all competitions and only three of them were draws.

Away from Elland Road their recent record is four defeats and a draw from their five latest outings and they even lost at Newport County in the FA Cup.

Bet 3: Back BTTS in Shakhtar v Roma @ 4/5 - KO 19:45 GMT

The other Champions League fixture of the night comes from the Ukraine as Shakhtar Donetsk take on Roma in a match that should have goals at both ends.

I am just going to focus on the goal stats as despite this being a first leg - which can often be cagey affairs - the overwhelming nature of the statistics make me believe that goals are inevitable.

The hosts won all three of their home Champions League group games but they didn't keep a single clean sheet. Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City all found the net against them, but Shakhtar managed to rack up seven goals themselves.

Then we have Roma who had this selection land in two of their three away group games and in Serie A they have only failed to score in two of their fixtures away from Stadio Olimpico.

2017/18 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 163pts
Returned: 154.25pts
P/L: -8.75pts

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