Paul Robinson thinks that he has spotted some excellent value in Brazil's Serie A tonight as he can't believe how big Sao Paulo are to win at Gremio. Here are his selections:
The Acca pays approximately 18/1
Sport Recife to suffer third straight defeat
Bet 1: Back Vitoria @ 11/10 - KO 23:30 BST
The hosts are down in 16th place having only taken 15 points from their opening 14 fixtures, and two of their last three outings have ended in defeat.
Tonight could be their night though as they are back on home soil and they have already won three of their six in front of their own fans this term. Their last two matches here ended in victory - both to nil - and when they have played the poorer teams in the division, they have beaten them.
Sport Recife aren't the worst side in the league - far from it - but they are out of sorts and have a less than stellar away record. The visitors have dropped down to 11th having taken just one point from a possible 12 of late, and on their most recent road trip they lost 1-0 at bottom of the table, Ceara.
Sao Paulo to overhaul Flamengo at the top
Bet 2: Back Sao Paulo @ 15/4 - KO 23:30 BST
This is the match of the night in Brazil as it sees the red-hot, Sao Paulo, travel to a Gremio side that are usually pretty strong at home.
The visitors have won four on the bounce - including wins over leaders, Flamengo, and defending champions, Corinthians. Diego Aguirre is getting a real tune out of his players this season and a ninth victory of the campaign tonight would see them go top.
It won't be easy for them, but three of their last four on their travels have ended in victory, and Gremio come into the game having been beaten at Vasco da Gama last time out. It's also worth noting that their win-rate at home this term is less than 50% and they have also lost to Palmeiras here.
Botafogo to put two away defeats behind them
Bet 3: Back Botafogo @ 20/23 - KO 23:30 BST
The selection need to bounce back from a pair of defeats since the break for the World Cup, but they were both away from home and the opposition couldn't have been much tougher - Corinthians and Flamengo.
I'm expecting better things for them back on home soil as they are undefeated at home this season - winning three and drawing three. They also face a much easier opponent.
Chapecoense have bounced back admirably since the tragedy that hit them and it's quite remarkable that they managed to avoid relegation last season. They are going along okay this year with 16 points from their 14 fixtures to date, and they come into this game on a run of four without defeat.
I do have concerns about their record away from home though as they are yet to win this season, with four of their seven matches ending in defeat - including a 5-1 reverse at Atletico PR and a 3-0 loss at Internacional.
2018/19 P/L (1pt each bet)