The Community Shield pits Chelsea up against Manchester City and Jamie Pacheco has gone looking for the best same-game multi-bets ahead of Sunday's big showdown.
"Leroy Sane, famously left out of the German World Cup squad should play. And my money is on Bernardo Silva operating on the other wing. The ‘other Silva’ didn’t get as many games as he would have liked last season and the arrival of Mahrez may mean it’s more of the same this time around. But that’s even more reason for him to try to make the most of his chance here."
Chelsea v Manchester City
Sunday August 5 15:00
Live on BT Sport
You can dismiss historical stats all you like but we at least have to recognise that when something has happened four times in a row, it's pretty likely to happen again. So what exactly has happened four times in a row? Chelsea losing the Community Shield.
They lost it in 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2018 against Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal and Arsenal again, respectively. Of those four defeats, only last year's wasn't in 90 minutes so this is one of those occasions where it doesn't pay to err on the side of caution and go with City to lift the trophy, which is 8/13. Rather, it's the 21/20 on them winning in 90 minutes that catches our eye.
Chelsea are obviously slow-starters when it comes to starting the season well so that straightforward win is the first part of our Same-Game Multi.
And we're going to combine that with a potential goalscorer. At first glance, you could say it's anyone's guess as to who might start, let alone score, but as with most things betting, we can adopt a process of elimination.
Raheem Sterling, David Silva, Kevin de Bruyne are all unlikely starters after their World Cup exploits and the fact they haven't played that much in pre-season games. Riyad Mahrez picked up an injury in his last outing and as much as Pep Guardiola is desperate to pick up a trophy early doors, it's hard to see the talented Algerian being risked here.
Leroy Sane, famously left out of the German World Cup squad should play. And my money is on Bernardo Silva operating on the other wing. The 'other Silva' didn't get as many games as he would have liked last season and the arrival of Mahrez may mean it's more of the same this time around. But that's even more reason for him to try to make the most of his chance here. He scored twice against Bayern Munich in a 3-2 win last week and it might be worth going with him getting on the scoresheet here again at a very decent 23/10.
You can see why a Community Shield game would be a bit of a slow burner. After all, as much as these pre-season matches in the likes of the USA or China or wherever are highly profitable to all concerned, the intensity isn't quite there and apart from anything else, they don't actually count for anything.
But the stats back up the fact that there should be goals here. Yes, both matches last season in the Premier League between these two ended 1-0 to City but before that the scorelines (irrespective of who won) were 2-1, 3-1, 3-0, 5-1 and 3-0 going back to the start of the 2015/16 season. Add to that there were six over 2.5 goals matches in the last nine editions of the Community Shield and that price on overs starts to look pretty decent.
You'd expect odds of 5/6 about something that is roughly a 50/50 chance, correct? Almost a coin toss. But that price has to be considered a generous one here. And it's the one on there being over nine corners in this match.
It's happened in five of the last six games between these two in all competitions and the stats show that last season there were 10 or more corners in 63% of City's home games, 68% of their away games and a further 68% of Chelsea's home games. Only in away games for Eden Hazard and co did it fall to under 50% (37% to be more precise) so the numbers really are stacked in our favour here.
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