After kicking off the week with two odds-against winners, Kev's looking for a third in Brazil, and he disagrees with the market on the subject of goals.
"Ten of Chapecoense's 21 league games have featured at least three goals, and they are getting to the stage where they really need wins instead of draws."
Take a swing at a big price
Chapecoense v Corinthians
Wednesday 02 October, 23:15
Just like my revision for any exam I ever took, Alcorcon left it late, but they came through for us in the end as a last-gasp penalty saw them draw 1-1 at Rayo Vallecano to land our BTTS bet.
We move on to Brazil, because struggling Chapecoense are up against high-flying Corinthians, and Over 2.5 Goals looks overpriced. Whenever I see Over 2.5 Goals trading at something like [3.1], my automatic instinct is to find out if there's any way we can make a case for it.
Corinthians, who are fourth in the table, have only netted 24 goals in 21 games, and have a very efficient defence. However, two of their last four matches in Serie A have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, and they have only kept one clean sheet in their last six outings in all competitions.
Chapecoense had to completely rebuild after a tragic plane crash killed most of their squad in 2016, so it's no surprise that they are struggling. They have the worst defensive record in the league (34 goals leaked) and they haven't kept a clean sheet since late August. They are seven points adrift of safety, so need to start pushing for wins.
Ten of Chapecoense's 21 league games have featured three goals or more, and I can't resist backing overs here at such a big price.
Points Staked: 133
Points Returned: 120.96
P/L: -12.04 points
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [3.1]