Football Bet of the Day: Bari-ng a disaster, Carpi should go up

It's nearly time to get Carpi's party started
It's nearly time to get Carpi's party started

After a dramatic push in Turkey last night, Kevin Hatchard's hoping to sneak us into Carpi's promotion party.

"Carpi are 12 points clear at the top and have won 12 of their 18 home games, while Bari have lost eight of their last 13 on the road."

Back Carpi to win at 2.265/4

Carpi v Bari
Tuesday April 28, 19:30

A cautionary tale from Turkey last night. Throughout the morning I had ummed and aahed about whether to go -1.0 or -1.5 on the Asian Handicap, with hosts Besiktas looking to go top of the Super Lig with a home win over Karabukspor. I decided discretion was the better part of valour and plumped for a one-goal handicap. A winning goal in the 96th minute gave Slaven Bilic's men a 2-1 win and pole position in the title race, and it gave us a happy escape.

We gleefully take back our stake, and head to Italy for a reunion with our old friends Carpi from Serie B. The unfashionable club from the provinces of Modena have taken the Italian second tier by storm, and a victory against mid-table Bari will be enough for them to secure a first ever promotion to the top flight.

The Biancorossi have won 21 of their 37 league games, including 12 victories out of 18 at the Stadio Sandro Cabassi. Not bad for a team who most people thought would finish in mid-table at best. Although Carpi missed out on promotion at the weekend thanks to a 1-0 defeat at third-placed Frosinone, but it's worth noting that the league leaders have won seven of their last nine games.

Bari have a bigger name than this evening's opponents Carpi, but they have been nowhere near as successful this term. Their season could still go either way - they are seven points off a promotion playoff place, but only five away from a relegation playoff spot.

Bari's away form is poor, with just four wins from 18 road trips. They have scored just 15 goals on their travels, and have lost eight of their last 13 away from home.

Carpi have a 12-point cushion at the top, so they can play with a measure of freedom, and they have kept clean sheets in five of their last six home games. It simply makes no sense for the hosts to be 2.265/4 to win this against such average opposition, so take advantage.

Recommended Bet

Back Carpi to win at 2.265/4

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 56

Points Returned: 51.01

P/L: -4.99 points

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