Cameroon v Ghana
Live on British Eurosport 2
Having started with two 1-0 wins, and then losing to Egypt by the same scoreline, I don't think that we saw the real Ghana at this tournament until the second half of their quarter final against DR Congo. They played like men possessed in a wonderful 45 minutes, and if they keep that form up here, then they should win comfortably against Cameroon.
Ghana are trading at [2.6] to win, and that's a solid bet if Avram Grant allows his team to play. The shackles have been on, but I sensed that the players took over a little in that second half, and it was Andre Ayew who inspired Ghana, rather than their Coach.
If Ayew can get them going again, then they can win the tournament. Ghana and Egypt are pretty much joint favourites at around [3.25], and that sums up the even nature of the four teams that are left. It's mighty hard to call.
Cameroon so nearly went out against Gabon in their last Group game, but then they deserved to go through against Senegal after they looked the more threatening side throughout a pretty poor contest. They have some quality in the shape of Benjy Moukandjo and Vincent Aboubakar, and even though they've drawn their last two games 0-0, I think that there could well be goals in this one.
It's in Ghana's nature to attack, and their stilted progress in the Group Stage came as a result of the approach imposed upon them: they're traditionally one of the higher scoring teams at any AFCON, and it's worth taking the risk that they revert to type, thanks to the influence of senior players.
Asamaoh Gyan is likely to return for Ghana, and with Andre Ayew to play behind him, Jordan Ayew likely to keep his place, and Christian Atsu's pace sure to cause of problem from out wide, I think that Ghana will go for it and Cameroon will respond. Both teams have enough class in the final third to get on the scoresheet.
Of course, there's a chance that this could be a stultifying 0-0 draw, but I think that there are factors in favour of us backing goals here, and if you can find an argument like that, then Over 2.5 Goals look an awfully big price at [3.1].
I know a successful professional gambler who says that whenever Over or Under 2.5 Goals is trading at over [3.0] then it's a price that you should always take a second look at, and that's what we have ahead of us here. A strong case, a big price, and two teams who've been playing against type.
I mentioned yesterday that three of the last four AFCON semi-finals have featured Over 2.5 Goals, which proves that it's not as unlikely outcome as it might seem, and so, tentatively, in what has become a very uncertain competition, that is the recommendation.
Over 2.5 Goals in Cameroon v Ghana @ [3.1]