Burnley v Watford: Draw looks best bet at Turf Moor

Sean Dyche Burnley
Sean Dyche has selection problems
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Burnley were hammered at Manchester City and have motivation to hit back against Watford but Dave Tindall thinks they may have to settle for a point...

"Burnley have the motivation but that may not be enough. Their weakened squad and Watford's lack of a winning habit steers me towards the draw."

Burnley v Watford
Thursday, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Burnley looking to bounce back

Monday night was an embarrassment to Burnley both on the ground and in the sky.

Whether the latter had any effect on the former is hard to know as they routinely get hammered by Manchester City anyway.

But they certainly won't be lacking in motivation as they try to paint the club in a better light at Turf Moor on Thursday evening.

With 39 points on the board, they're in 11th place although it's worth noting that only four teams have lost more home games than Burnley's six.

Watford still in relegation mire

Watford returned to action with a last-gasp point at home to Leicester.

A game seemingly destined for stalemate exploded into life at the very end as Ben Chilwell fired home in stoppage time before Craig Dawson found time to pop up with a superb equaliser.

"It is a really good point against a good team," said boss Nigel Pearson. "We have proved to ourselves we can compete."

They've certainly shown that but, bottom line, Watford remain in a perilous position.

At least there's some comfort to be found in a favourable run of games coming up, with Southampton, Norwich and Newcastle their next three visitors to Vicarage Road.

Watford clear favourites but stats don't support it

It may come as a slight surprise that Watford are the clear favourites to win this.They're just [2.52] to take all three points which looks plenty short given their tally of just two away wins all season.

Burnley are [3.25] to take victory while The Draw trades at [3.3].

However, Sean Dyche has a big selection headache to deal with and that helps explain the price.

Strikers Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood missed the City game through injury, while Jeff Hendrick, Aaron Lennon, Phil Bardsley and Joe Hart are all free agents from the end of June and were not considered for selection.

As for head-to-head form, Burnley scored a convincing 3-0 win at Vicarage Road earlier this season and have won four and lost just two of their seven Premier League meetings with Watford.

Draw makes sense

While Watford hint at a team far better than their position suggests, the 3-0 win over Liverpool which ended the Reds' hopes of going unbeaten is actually their only victory in the last nine games.

There are four losses in that run and all four came on the road.

Pearson has certainly had an impact but the wins aren't coming.

Burnley have the motivation but that may not be enough. Their weakened squad and Watford's lack of a winning habit steers me towards the draw at [3.3].

Clean sheet likely

A look at the Both Teams To Score charts shows that Watford and Burnley are the bottom two.

BTTS has landed in just 40% of Watford's games and in only 37% of Burnley's.

Add in the filter of Burnley at home and it's 33%.

The numbers are certainly there to support 'No' at [1.98] and you could argue that the lack of atmosphere adds a helping hand. That price is enough to tempt me in.

This is likely to be tight and helps us just about break even if either team nicks it 1-0 or we get a clean sheet in a more one-sided contest. Obviously the 0-0 is the best outcome of all and means we land both bets.

Opta Stat

Watford have won only one of their 20 midweek (Tuesday-Thursday) Premier League away games (D3 L16), with that victory coming at Arsenal in January 2017.

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Dave Tindall's P/L, 2019/20

Staked: 97.50pts
Returned: 98.01pts
P/L: +0.51pt

Dave Tindall,

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