Burnley v Norwich
Saturday September 21, 15:00
A better beginning for Burnley
It's hard to gauge how well Burnley's season has gone so far as they haven't won since the opening weekend, and are down in 14th place.
That being said, they were unlucky to lose at Arsenal, and their only other defeat came at the hands of Liverpool. In their other two games, they drew at Wolves and at Brighton.
Sean Dyche will be hoping that his side can now kick on and pick up a couple of more wins in the next few weeks. A trip to Villa Park follows this, and then it's another home outing, with Everton the opponent.
As far as the team news goes, Dyche will make a late decision on Johann Berg Gudmundsson after the winger's return to fitness, however Danny Drinkwater is not yet back in full training.
Daniel Farke continues to impress
The Canaries pulled off arguably the greatest shock in Premier League history last weekend, as they handed Manchester City their first league defeat since their 2-1 loss at St James' Park in January.
What was perhaps most amazing, was that Daniel Farke's men did it with a make-shift defence. The Pukki party was in full-swing, as the Finnish striker made it six goals in five games, and he also set up the second.
The result actually ended a three game losing streak for Norwich - two league and one cup - but with six points from five fixtures, including matches against Liverpool and City, it's a start to the campaign that Farke would have taken.
Given last week's result, it will be interesting to see if the manager makes any changes to his starting line-up, but one thing is for sure, whoever takes the field, the style of play will be exactly the same.
No repeat for Norwich
The market is quite tight when it comes to the match-odds, with the hosts the favourites at 2.0621/20. The Clarets have won one and lost one at Turf Moor this term - both in a 3-0 scoreline.
Last season their record at Turf Moor read 7-2-10, so they lost more than they won, but six of their seven victories came in their last 12 outings.
Norwich have been beaten on both of their trips away from Carrow Road since their promotion back to the Premier League. A 4-1 defeat at Anfield was followed by a 2-0 reverse at the London Stadium.
The away win is 3.814/5 on the Betfair Exchange, but that isn't big enough to get my juices flowing. For all of their brilliance last Saturday, I am far from convinced that the Canaries will be able to follow it up, and I am ruling out backing them at those odds.
The third and final option is the draw, which is the biggest price of the lot. As mentioned above, Burnley only drew twice in front of their own fans last year, and Norwich are yet to share the points this season. The more goals there are in a game, the less likely it is to end all square. As I believe that there will be a few goals, I'm giving the draw a swerve.
That brings me back to the home win, and I am happy enough to back it at odds-against. Burnley had a fair record at home after they were clear of the Europa League, and Ashley Barnes will give the Norwich defence plenty to think about.
Finally, Opta also tells us that Burnley have won their last four Premier League matches against newly-promoted teams, having won just four of their first 20 such games in the competition (W4 D9 L7).
More goals for the usual suspects
Goals should be the order of the day on Saturday and I don't even think that 1.748/11 for Over 2.5 is too short. It landed in both of Burnley's home games this season and four of Norwich's five since their promotion.
Teemu Pukki and Ashley Barnes have been two of the form strikers so far this year, and the pair have 10 goals between them.
Norwich already have the worst defensive record in the division, and while Burnley have only conceded seven, that's still an average of over a goal a game. It also shouldn't be forgotten, that despite the visitors' leaky defence, they have been banging them in at the other end.
Under 2.5 Goals is trading at around the 2.226/5 mark, but that really isn't for me.
Over on the Betfair Sportsbook, a combination of Burnley to win, Over 2.5 Goals and Ashley Barnes to score anytime is 5.23 and it looks likely that the Clarets' striker will add to his season tally of four goals.