Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every game of GW28

Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick
Hansi Flick can see his Bayern side take a firm grip on the title with win over BVB
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The Bundesliga returns in midweek with GW28 and Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is here to predict the score of every match, using expected goals (xG) data to find the betting value...

"Bayern Munich were emphatic winners against Frankfurt last weekend, and that is just the word to describe them since the appointment of Hansi Flick. Away from home this season they have generated an average of 3.0 xGF per game."

Bayern to edge Der Klassiker

Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
Tuesday, 17:30 GMT
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Arguably the biggest game of the Bundesliga season so far, as Dortmund host Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker with just four points between the sides. Dortmund have won both games since the restart, but haven't been at their searing attacking best - according to xG (2.2 xGF in two games). Instead, it has been their defence that has impressed, allowing just 1.0 xGA in two matches.

Bayern Munich were emphatic winners against Frankfurt last weekend, and that is just the word to describe them since the appointment of Hansi Flick. Away from home this season they have generated an average of 3.0 xGF per game, so will create here, even if Dortmund have been stingier defensively. In a crucial game at Signal Iduna Park, with an absent Yellow Wall, the model thinks Bayern will prevail (54%) in a tense game, though both teams should net (68% BTTS) in a game with goals (70% O2.5) - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ [10.0]

Bayer's good run to continue

Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg
Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
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Are Bayer in the title race? Perhaps they are too far behind, but their current form is excellent, and moved up to fourth with a big win over Borussia Monchengladbach (xG: BMG 2.3 - 3.3 B04). At home this season, Bayer have been sensational from an xG perspective, generating 2.3 xGF per game while allowing 1.2 xGA per game.

Wolfsburg were beaten 2-0 by Dortmund last weekend, though it was another good defensive display based on xG, allowing 0.9 xGA. Interestingly, Wolfsburg have a much better process on the road than at home (1.7 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game), so shouldn't be underestimated here, though they have some key players out. The model thinks Bayer will win again here (50%) in an entertaining game (61%, 62%) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [14.5]

Frankfurt to halt slide

Frankfurt vs Freiburg
Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
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Frankfurt were worryingly poor at Bayern Munich at the weekend, mainly in their approach to the game, as they were so open defensively. They have now lost their last five games, and on the face of it that is a horrendous run of form, until you realise that they have played Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayern Munich in that run. At home this season, their process is one of the better in the league (2.0 xGF, 1.5 xGA per game).

Freiburg were also disappointing at the weekend, losing at home to relegation threatened Werder Bremen after a poor attacking display (0.80 xGF). Since the restart, Freiburg have struggled in attack having created just 0.38 xGF against RB Leipzig, so may struggle to threaten the hosts. Frankfurt are strongly fancied by the Infogol model to get the win (62%) in an entertaining encounter (67% O2.5, 62% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.0]

Werder back to losing ways

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
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Werder picked up a massive three points at Freiburg at the weekend to move themselves within three points of the relegation play-off place and six points from certain safety. They were flattered to win in a scrappy game, but Werder won't care, though they again face a top five opponent here (three of last five opponents have been top five teams). They have picked up five points in total at home this season.

Borussia Monchengladbach were beaten by Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend, and rightly so according to expected goals, as they were poor defensively (3.3 xGA). Away from home their process has been very strong (1.8 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game), so we expect them to get back to winning ways here (56%) in a high-scoring game (63% O2.5, 63% BTTS) - 1-3.

Back the 1-3 @ [14.0]

RBL to end Hertha mini-run

RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin
Wednesday, 17:30 GMT
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RB Leipzig got back to winning ways in emphatic style at Mainz, running out 5-0 winners in what was a perfect display (xG: MAI 0.3 - 4.7 RBL). Defensively they were excellent again (0.4 xGA vs Freiburg), while creating a host of chances, with Timo Werner notching a hat-trick. Their process at home is among the best in the league (2.3 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), so an in-form Hertha should be fearful.

The side from the capital were emphatic winners themselves on Friday night, winning the Berlin derby 4-0 (xG: HER 2.4 - 0.3 UNI). They have won their first two games under Bruno Labbadia by an aggregate of 7-0, but this is a much stiffer test especially on the road. We think RBL will get the three points here (77%), though Hertha do have enough attacking talent to get on the scoresheet (53% BTTS) in a goal laden game (70% O2.5, 49% O3.5) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [11.5]

Augsburg to win again

Augsburg vs Paderborn
Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
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Augsburg eased some pressure with a huge 3-0 win at Schalke on Sunday, with those three points moving them six clear of the relegation play-off place. At home this season they are one of nine teams to have a positive xG process in the Bundesliga (1.5 xGF, 1.4 xGA per game), so will be fancying their chances of making it back-to-back wins.

Paderborn remain six points behind the relegation play-off place after a 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim, though they were fortunate to get a point. Since the restart, Paderborn are unbeaten (2 draws), but have struggled in attack, generating fewer than 1.0 xGF in both games. On the road this season, the basement side have allowed an average of 1.7 xGA per game, so the model thinks Augsburg will get the win here (49%). Goals are also on the cards (59% O2.5, 60% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.6]

Another game without a win for Schalke

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Schalke
Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
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Fortuna Dusseldorf squandered a 2-0 lead at FC Koln at the weekend, and that was a fair reflection of the chances in the game, as Fortuna created chances equating to 0.3 xGF while allowing 2.7 xGA - 2.0 non-pen xGA. Since Uwe Rosler was appointed manager, Fortuna have won one, lost one and drawn the other six of his eight games, and they haven't done enough in those draws to deserve all three points.

Schalke are in a rut, with a 3-0 defeat at home to Augsburg on Sunday their ninth game without a win, and fifth loss in that time. Performances have been extremely drab in that time, generating an average of 0.8 xGF per game while allowing 1.5 xGA per game - that is a process we would expect to see from a relegation threatened team. We make David Wagner's side marginal favourites here (38%), but that implies a 62% chance that Fortuna avoid defeat, so siding with the draw is the play, with both teams netting (55% BTTS) - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ [8.8]

Hoffenheim to win in goal fest

Hoffenheim vs FC Koln
Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
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Hoffenheim were again frustrated at the weekend with missed chances, as they won the xG battle for a second straight game and failed to pick up the three points. They are seven without a win in the league, losing four, but prior to that run had won four of five, including victories over Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen at home. They are streaky.

FC Koln drew 2-2 for a second successive game, this time coming back from 2-0 down to deservedly draw. It was a second game in a row in which they created more than 2.7 xGF, so are a potent attacking side. On the road, they allow 1.7 xGA, so are vulnerable, and the model thinks Hoffenheim will get a much-needed win (48%) in a high scoring encounter (74% O2.5, 54% O3.5, 72% BTTS) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [21.0]

Union to stop the rot

Union Berlin vs Mainz
Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
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Union Berlin were woeful against Hertha on Friday, as they were against Bayern Munich, and since the break have generated just 0.8 xGF. Returning home will be good for them though, with a mid-table process in Berlin (1.4 xGF, 1.6 xGA per game), but this is a big game as both teams are in touching distance of the relegation play-off place.

Mainz were pathetic against RB Leipzig on Sunday, with a 5-0 defeat meaning they have lost 13-0 over two games against RBL this season. Away from home, they have one of the worst defensive processes in the division, allowing 2.2 xGA per game, so this could be a good game for the struggling hosts. We think Union will get the win (43%) in an entertaining clash (63% O2.5, 64% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.0]

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Just in time for the return of Bundesliga action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, Mmre prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L

Staked: 264pts
Returned: 258.27pts
P+L: -5.73pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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