Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every game of GW27

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Wolfsburg can halt Dortmund's run
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The Bundesliga is into GW27 this weekend and Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is here to predict the score of every match, using expected goals (xG) data to find the betting value...

"Away from home, Dortmund have lost four of their games, with their process only just positive (1.42 xGF, 1.38 xGA per game), so don’t expect an easy win for Lucien Favre’s side here."

Hertha to edge capital derby

Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin
Friday, 19:30 GMT
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Hertha picked up an emphatic win in coach Bruno Labbadia's first game in charge, though the 3-0 scoreline flattered them against Hoffenheim (xG: HOF 3.0 - 1.5 HER). Their home form this season has been poor, but things could be different under the new coach and his expansive style. Union were disappointing in attack against Bayern Munich last weekend. Away from home this season they have been poor, especially defensively (1.8 xGA per away game). The hosts are taken to win (46%) the game and the bragging rights, in a high-scoring game (57% O2.5, 59% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.5]

Freiburg to add to Werder woes

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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Freiburg gained an invaluable point away at RB Leipzig last weekend, though they were fortunate to come away with anything from the game after being comfortably second best (xG: RBL 2.0 - 0.4 FRE). At home this season they have been a potent offence (1.4 xGF per game), so should cause a struggling Werder team some serious problems. Bremen were thumped by Bayer Leverkusen on Monday night, a game in which they were far inferior. They are in relegation trouble, so need results, but given what they have shown on the road this season (1.1 xGF, 2.1 xGA) it is hard to make a case for them here. Freiburg are taken to win (44%), with goals on the menu (57% O2.5, 59% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.0]

Gladbach to dash Bayer top four hopes

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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The biggest game of the weekend, as two of the top five clash. Gladbach were impressive against Frankfurt, strolling to a 3-1 win, picking up from where they left off. At home this season they have been excellent, especially in attack (2.4 xGF per game), boasting the third best home process in the league. Bayer were equally impressive against Werder last gameweek, but come into this with a negative process away from home (1.5 xGF, 1.8 xGA per away game), with a worrying defensive process. Gladbach are fancied to get a big three points (47%) in a cracking encounter with plenty of goals (70% O2.5, 49% O3.5, 69% BTTS) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [21.0]

Another loss for Paderborn

Paderborn vs Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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Paderborn's hopes of survival weren't improved or dashed by their goalless draw with Fortuna Dusseldorf last weekend, a fair result as neither created many good chances. Their home process is surprisingly poor, especially defensively (2.1 xGA per away game), which doesn't bode well for the remainder of the season. Hoffenheim were unfortunate to lose and so heavily to Hertha Berlin, as they racked up 3.0 xGF without scoring. This Hoffenheim team is hugely streaky in their performances and results, but they are a better team on the road than at home this season according to expected goals. We expect the visitors to come away with the win (48%), with goals on the cards (70% O2.5, 69% BTTS) - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ [10.0]

Wolves to hold BVB

Wolfsburg vs Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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Wolfsburg snatched a late win against Augsburg last weekend, moving them up to sixth in the table, where they deserve to be according to expected goals. The Wolves have been the third best defensive team in the league this season (1.15 xGA per game) and have been even better at home (1.05), so expect them to limit Dortmund well. BVB were clinical against Schalke, as the scoreline flattered them somewhat (xG: DOR 1.3 - 0.4 SCH). Away from home, Dortmund have lost four of their games, with their process only just positive (1.42 xGF, 1.38 xGA per game), so don't expect an easy win for Lucien Favre's side here. We actually think the hosts are being underestimated here, and think they will avoid defeat (65% WOL or draw), in a tight game in which both teams score (57% BTTS) - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ [9.0]

Bayern to rout Frankfurt

Bayern Munich vs Frankfurt
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
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Bayern Munich were far from their emphatic best against Union Berlin last weekend, but ran out comfortable winners. At home this season, Bayern have been excellent, racking up an average of 3.0 xGF per game while allowing only 1.0 xGA per game - it is hard to see anything other than a home win. Frankfurt were extremely poor against Gladbach, with the game over before they started having an impact. They have picked up the fewest points on the road of any team in the league this season, and we don't expect them to add to their measly tally here (78% BMU). Goals are expected though, and plenty of them (62% O3.5, 63% BTTS) - 4-1.

Back the 4-1 @ [11.0]

Schalke poor run to continue

Schalke vs Augsburg
Sunday, 12:30 GMT
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Schalke were hopeless against Dortmund last weekend, rarely threatening in attack, as has been the case for some time now (0.86 xGF per game in last seven). They are the third worst attacking team in the league according to xG, and that has been their main struggle throughout 19/20. Augsburg haven't been in much better form, but their last four games have seen them come up against four of the top five in the league. As a team they create good chances (1.4 xGF per game), and should test Schalke's rear-guard. We think they can get something from the VELTINS-Arena (56% AUG or draw) in a tight game that sees both teams notch (57% BTTS) - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ [7.0]

RBL to get back to winning ways

Mainz vs RB Leipzig
Sunday, 14:30 GMT
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Mainz put on a spirited comeback at FC Koln last weekend to earn a 2-2 draw, though they again conceded a host of good chances (xG: FCK 2.7 - 2.5 MAI). Chances at both ends is the norm for Mainz when playing at home (1.4 xGF, 1.6 xGA), and they will be looking for revenge here after their 8-0 embarrassment in the reverse game. RB Leipzig were frustrated by Freiburg last weekend, having to settle for a point despite creating enough chances to deserve all three. Their process on the road is excellent (2.4 xGF, 1.1 xGA per game), better than at home in fact, so we think they will get back to winning ways here (62% RBL), in a goal laden game (67% O2.5, 62% BTTS) - 1-3.

Back the 1-3 @ [12.5]

FC Koln vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
Sunday, 17:00 GMT
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FC Koln were denied three points by some poor defending against Mainz, but their attack was again firing on all cylinders. At home this season they have been solid, creating plenty of chances (1.7 xGF per game) on average, and that will be the case again here. Fortuna Dusseldorf gained a point last weekend, but it was a case of missed opportunity against bottom side Paderborn. They have been the worst travelling team in the league this season according to expected goals (1.1 xGF, 2.1 xGA per game), so could be in for a defeat here. We think Koln will win (60%) in another high-scoring game (64% O2.5, 60% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.2]

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Just in time for the return of Bundesliga action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, Mmre prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L

Staked: 255pts
Returned: 258.27pts
P+L: +3.27pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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