Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions ahead of a huge relegation clash...
"Infogol gives Köln and Mainz an identical chance of victory at RheinEnergieStadion, with the two sides going into this weekend on opposite sides of the relegation play-off line."
Arminia to stay in trouble with home defeat
After Andreas Voglsammer's equaliser rescued a point for Arminia in Mainz, the pressure will remain on Frank Kramer's team in their fight against the drop. A home return of 0.84 xGF per game is still a worry, though, and Infogol anticipates an away win for a Freiburg side which kept the strugglers off the scoresheet when they met earlier in the season,
Bayern to edge closer to another title
Bayern Munich did the hard work in Leipzig last weekend, earning a vital three points in their title defence, and they'll want to keep some domestic momentum going before attempting to overturn a first-leg deficit against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. Union held Bayern to a draw in the capital back in December, but home advantage could well be enough for the league leaders.
Frankfurt to keep up top four momentum
After a huge win in Dortmund last weekend, Eintracht Frankfurt have a top four spot very much in their grasp. They can cement that position by maintaining an unbeaten home record with victory over one of the three teams above them, and Infogol backs Adi Hütter's team to take the points in what promises to be a tight battle at Deutsche Bank Park.
Hertha to stay in deep trouble
Hertha have kept their heads above water of late, but remain just two points north of the drop-zone. Visitors Gladbach have been in resurgent form, winning back-to-back games for the first time since January, and Infogol gives the away side a 44% chance of victory at the Olympiastadion in a tight game and staying in touch with the top six in the process.
Leipzig to stay clear in second
Despite last week's disappointment against Bayern Munich, Die Roten Bullen are still well set to finish the campaign in second place. Their next task is to get the better of a Werder Bremen side struggling for goals on home soil, and Julian Nagelsmann's men are in pole position to secure a repeat of their 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture.
Dortmund to avenge Stuttgart hammering
A 5-1 loss to Stuttgart at Signal Iduna Park cost former Dortmund boss Lucien Favre his job, but the visitors are tipped to take revenge on their opponents as they prepare for the second leg of an open Champions League meeting with Manchester City. Infogol makes Dortmund 49% favourites, even as a recent mini-slump puts their European push in severe doubt.
Schalke to sneak a rare win
If Schalke are to pick up another win before the end of the season, one of their best opportunities will come against an Augsburg side averaging just 0.85 per game xGF away from home. Only a late Marco Richter goal denied Die Königsblauen victory in the reverse fixture, and Infogol anticipates a first win for recently-appointed home manager Dimitrios Grammozis.
Relegation six-pointer to end all-square
Infogol gives Köln and Mainz an identical chance of victory at RheinEnergieStadion, with the two sides going into this weekend on opposite sides of the relegation play-off line. It could be a case of who blinks first, with so little between the sides, but both are tipped to find the net in a match which could end up determining which of the clubs remains in the Bundesliga next season.
Hoffenheim to derail Leverkusen's European push
Hoffenheim aren't entirely safe just yet, but a victory at home to Leverkusen will put them on the verge of survival for another year. Infogol makes the hosts narrow favourites, and a failure to win will all but end any hope of interim boss Hannes Wolf taking his charges into the top four. December's 4-1 win over nine-man Hoffenheim - which sent Bayer top - feels a lifetime ago.