Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the league's newest manager makes his bow...
"Bo Svensson will pick his first Bundesliga XI this weekend, having taken over at a Mainz side with just one win all season, and his first task is to get something from a Frankfurt side coming off back-to-back victories."
Bayern to keep flying after Mainz comeback
Bayern Munich took a while to wake up in 2021, falling 2-0 behind against relegation-threatened Mainz, but a second-half comeback was just what the doctor ordered ahead of one of their toughest games of the season on paper. Gladbach won the corresponding game last season thanks to Ramy Bensebaini's late decider, but Infogol gives the champions the edge this time around.
Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Leverkusen to bounce back from successive defeats
After going so long without defeat, Leverkusen have now lost twice on the spin. However, they have a chance to restart their title challenge at home to a Werder side with just three points from their last six games. Peter Bosz's hosts have averaged more than two xGF across their last three home games in the Bundesliga and Europa League, and should prevail despite their opponents winning more points away than at home this term.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.007/1
Freiburg to pick up a fifth straight win
Four wins from their last four games have lifted Freiburg out of relegation trouble and into the top half of the Bundesliga, where they can stay by beating lowly Köln. The visitors have been second-best in xG terms in each of their last six games, but the home side will need to be wary of the ability of Markus Gisdol's men to absorb pressure and hit teams on the counter.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2
New Mainz boss to face baptism of fire
Bo Svensson will pick his first Bundesliga XI this weekend, having taken over at a Mainz side with just one win all season, and his first task is to get something from a Frankfurt side coming off back-to-back victories. The home side won the corresponding game last season, helped by playing against 10 men for more than 45 minutes, but a defence averaging 1.71 xGA per game at home will be up against it.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1
Schalke's dismal run to continue
Christian Gross' arrival failed to spark an immediate turnaround for Schalke, though they'll hope a return to their home turf may help. However, Infogol's model gives visiting Hoffenheim a 49% chance of victory against the Bundesliga's basement side, whose defeat at Hertha Berlin last weekend means they have the worst home and away records in the 2020-21 campaign.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Wolfsburg to edge battle of high-flyers
Union Berlin and Wolfsburg have identical win-loss records this term, sitting fifth and sixth respectively as a result, and shared the spoils last season at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. This weekend's meeting promises to be a close-run thing, with both sides having lost just twice this term, but Infogol's model backs the visitors to take the points 41% of the time.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Leipzig to end Dortmund's faint title hopes
A run of six points from four games has left Borussia Dortmund eight points adrift of league leaders Bayern, and another defeat at Red Bull Arena would all but end their remaining title hopes. Leipzig, in contrast, are very much in the title race and will be out for revenge after Erling Braut Haaland's double saw Saturday's opponents pip them to second spot at the end of last season.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Mid-table clash to end level in Augsburg
Infogol's model finds little to choose between Augsburg and Stuttgart, who are separated by a single point in mid-table. Only one team has drawn more games than the six of Pellegrino Matarazzo's visitors, and the hosts have drawn two of their last three at WWK Arena, but a potentially tight game could easily be settled by a narrow margin in either direction.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.4013/2
Hertha to pull further away from danger
Arminia Bielefeld v Hertha Berlin
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Five home defeats have left Arminia in the relegation mix, and an average of 2.1 xGA per game on home soil will concern manager Uwe Neuhaus. Hertha come to SchücoArena off the back of a morale-boosting 3-0 victory over Schalke, and Infogol gives them the edge against last season's 2. Bundesliga champions.
Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayern Munich: Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen: Back the 2-1 @ 8.007/1
Freiburg v Köln: Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2
Mainz v Eintracht Frankfurt: Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1
Schalke v Hoffenheim: Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Union Berlin v Wolfsburg: Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund: Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Augsburg v Stuttgart: Back the 1-1 @ 7.4013/2
Arminia Bielefeld v Hertha Berlin: Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2