Against All Odds: Braga to run out of gas against Guimaraes

Paul Robinson
21 February 2016

The toll will start to tell on the Braga players soon

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Paul Robinson completed his seventh successive odds-on lay yesterday and he's hoping that number eight can come from Portugal this evening as he thinks Braga can be opposed for the visit of Vitoria Guimaraes.

"Sergio Conceiçao’s men are unbeaten in seven and, even then, the defeat they suffered came against Benfica."

Lay Braga v Guimaraes @ 1.625/8

Braga v Guimaraes
Sunday February 21, 20:30 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video

It's been a decent campaign for Sporting Braga thus far as they are a clear fourth in the Primeira Liga, still in both domestic cups - with one foot in the final of the Taca de Portugal and they look set to make it through to the last 16 of the Europa League as well having beaten Sion 2-1 in Switzerland on Thursday.

That last little bit is part of the reason why I think they could be vulnerable tonight. Paulo Fonseca's side have only had two full days rest since that fixture and they have generally been playing two games a week this season - something that must catch up with them sooner or later.

Their current record of success in the league after playing in the Europa this term is mixed. It has happened six times so far and they've won three, drawn two and lost one. Their overall win percentage in the league this year is higher than 50% so it does highlight a drop off in results after a Europa game.

Today's opponents are Vitoria Guimaraes and they will certainly be no pushovers. Last season's fifth placed finishers are currently sixth in the table, just one point behind Rio Ave above them, with a game in hand.

Sergio Conceiçao's men are unbeaten in seven and, even then, the defeat they suffered came against Benfica. Since that loss, they have won three and drawn four, and that includes a victory over Porto.

It's worth a look at their record away from home as well this season as they have only been beaten twice on the road, and the reverses came at Porto and Sporting Lisbon. Their last six results away from Estádio D. Afonso Henriques are DDWWWW and they earned a 0-0 draw in this fixture last year.

This should be quite a close game and there are plenty of reasons to think that the visitors can take something from it. Which is why, with Braga trading at around the 1.625/8 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Braga v Guimaraes @ 1.625/8