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The Big Saturday Multiple: Low-scoring trend to continue in Germany

Carlo Ancelotti is closing in on his first Bundesliga title
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It's that time of the weekend where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

- Back Sevilla @ 1.53 (8/15)
- Back Barcelona @ 1.35 (7/20)
- Back Over 2.5 Goals in Sheffield Wednesday v Newcastle @ 2.3 (13/10)
- Back Under 2.5 Goals in Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund @ 2.5 (6/4)

The Multiple pays approximately 11.88 (11/1)

Bet 1: Sevilla (HOME) @ 1.53 (8/15)

It's been a miserable few weeks for Sevilla as they were knocked out of the Champions League by Leicester and have slipped down to fourth in La Liga.

Jorge Sampaoli's side still have a four point advantage over Villarreal in fifth but they will be aiming to finish third and they are now three points adrift of Atletico Madrid.

The hosts haven't won any of their last five in the league - three draws and two defeats - but they are up against a struggling Deportivo team who are down in 16th.

The visitors have taken just one point from a possible nine following a brief rally and while they have put daylight between themselves and the relegation zone, they still aren't out of danger.

Away from home it's four defeats in five and with Sevilla having won 10 from 14 at home this term, I can't see anything other than a home win.


Bet 2: Barcelona (AWAY) @ 1.35 (7/20)

A very safe selection for our away win this week but nothing at a price took my fancy.

Barcelona are still in the title race and while they trail Real Madrid by two points, having played a game more, they still have to take on their rivals so it's far from over.

Luis Enrique's men put a poor 2-1 defeat at Deportivo behind them by convincingly beating Valencia, Granada and Sevilla, and this really should be a penalty kick for them.

Malaga won only their second match since November on Wednesday but that was against Sporting Gijon and they are nowhere near Barcelona's class.

It will obviously give them some confidence of course, but it won't be enough and they've lost five of their last six on this ground.


Bet 3: Sheffield Wednesday v Newcastle (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.3 (13/10)

This week's goal-fest will hopefully come from Yorkshire as Sheffield Wednesday host Newcastle in the Championship.

The Owls are clinging on to their place in the play-offs and their promotion hopes were boosted in midweek as they won at Rotherham while Fulham in seventh were beaten.

The recent stats aren't overly pointing to a high-scoring affair as Wednesday's last five have all gone under. It is worth noting though that four of their last half dozen at Hillsbrough have seen over 2.5 backers collect and the two that missed out did so by just a single goal.

Newcastle are almost certainly going to win automatic promotion but their focus is on beating Brighton to the title. They trail them by two points, but do have a game in hand and they're back in form having won their two latest outings.

Dwight Gayle being back in the team has helped and while their last two away fixtures ended 0-0, four of their five before that all saw the ball in the net on three occasions or more.


Bet 4: Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.5 (6/4)

This may come as a slightly surprising selection but there is huge value in backing under 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga match between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.

Both of these teams have had more games go over than under this season, but that's the case every year, yet when the pair of them meet, the trend is for a low-scoring affair.

In the previous 10 meetings between Bayern and BVB, eight of them have seen under 2.5 backers collect. Even more encouraging is that five of those eight actually saw under 1.5 backers at the pay out window, with there being a clean sheet for at least of the sides in the last four clashes - including two 0-0's.


Recommended Multiple

Back Sevilla @ 1.53 (8/15)

Back Barcelona @ 1.35 (7/20)

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Sheffield Wednesday v Newcastle @ 2.3 (13/10)

Back Under 2.5 Goals in Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund @ 2.5 (6/4)

The Multiple pays approximately 11.88 (11/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2017 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 13pts
Returned: 12.97pts
P/L: -0.03pts

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