Football Bet of the Day: Basement battle can provide entertainment

Strugglers to throw off the shackles

Belshina v Gorodeya
Friday 03 April, 15:00

A Nicaraguan no-no for us in the early hours, as our selection Managua took the lead against title rivals Real Esteli, only to concede an equaliser and draw 1-1. A tough week, but we press on.

Belarus is where it's at right now, given that it's one of the only leagues in world football that is pressing on despite the Coronavirus crisis. There are two games on Friday, and the first of them brings together fellow strugglers Belshina and Gorodeya.

Neither club has picked up any points so far, and Gorodeya haven't even scored yet. Gorodeya lost 1-0 at Vitebsk in their season opener, and then went down 2-0 at home to Shakhtyor. As for Belshina, they were beaten 3-1 at home by FC Minsk, and then lost 1-0 at Torpedo BelAZ.

The temptation is to look at Gorodeya's scoring problems and conclude that this will be another sterile affair. However, if you look at their pre-season matches, six of the eight featured at least three goals, including a 2-1 defeat at Belshina.

If we examine Belshina's closing games in their promotion-winning season, we see that ten of their final 11 matches saw an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. As for Gorodeya, nine of their final 16 Premier League matches of last season featured at least three goals.

Given the two teams' current struggles, I understand to an extent why Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.9215/8. However, the teams shared three goals just a few weeks ago, and this may be a rare chance for their respective attacks to shine.