Football Bet of the Day: Stodgy Stoger to slow Bayern down

Jupp Heynckes's Bayern are beating teams, but not thrashing them
Jupp Heynckes's Bayern are beating teams, but not thrashing them

We're off to Germany for the latest edition of Der Klassiker, and Kev thinks it might be a little less exciting than usual.

"Dortmund have won both of their games under new coach Peter Stoger, and they have only conceded one goal. Bayern have won their last three games 1-0."

Back Under 3.5 Goals at 1.834/5

Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund
Wednesday December 20, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

A push last night, but at least we stopped the rot. West Ham went down 1-0 at Arsenal, and the insurance of giving the Hammers a one-goal start was ultimately justified.

We're swapping London for Munich, but taking in another cup match. Bayern Munich are up against Borussia Dortmund in the last 16 of the DFB Pokal, and it could be a tighter affair than the market suggests.

If this game had been a few weeks ago, I'd have fancied Dortmund to get smashed. However, BVB have done the sensible thing and jettisoned hapless coach Peter Bosz, and replaced him with the more pragmatic Peter Stoger. The Austrian had a disastrous season with FC Koln this term, but deserved a crack at the job based on his overall spell at the RheinEnergieStadion. He built his success in Cologne on defensive strength and good organisation.

Stoger has won both his games in charge, 2-0 at Mainz and 2-1 against Hoffenheim. The concession of just one goal is a massive step in the right direction, as under Bosz, Die Schwarzgelben were conceding goals left, right and centre.

Equally, Bayern aren't quite playing as well as they were a few weeks ago, when they smacked Dortmund 3-1 at Signal Iduna Park. Although they have won their last three games, they have only won them 1-0, and haven't hit top gear in any of those victories.

Bayern are still without Thiago and Manuel Neuer, but Arjen Robben is back in full training. Dortmund's star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has a muscle injury, and Stoger is hoping that he recovers in time for the game.

I think Stoger will look to soak up early pressure, and unless Bayern can overwhelm their opponents early on, this might not be a goalfest.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 3.5 Goals at 1.834/5

2017 FBOTD P/L

Points Staked: 181

Points Returned: 169.75

P/L: -11.25 points

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