After a successful lay at [1.51] last night, Kev's turning to European football's minnows for inspiration.
"Armenia have failed to score in four of their last six games, and Gibraltar's defending has been steadily improving."
Basement battle won't be thrill-a-minute
Armenia v Gibraltar
Saturday 13 October, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports
Dutch delight for us last night, as [1.51] shots NEC Nijmegen lost 1-0 at home to our boys FC Eindhoven.
We'll make a rare trip to Armenia for tonight's wager. The hosts are up against Gibraltar in the Nations League, and there are signs that the visitors are starting to adjust to life in international football.
It's easy to dismiss Gibraltar as being made up of the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker, but they recently beat Latvia 1-0 in a friendly, and their defending has improved markedly in recent games. Admittedly they have played weaker opposition because of the new Nations League format, but they only lost their last two UNL matches 2-0 against Macedonia and Liechtenstein.
If we assume that Gibraltar probably won't score (they have drawn a blank in six of their last seven matches), then backing Under 3.5 Goals starts to look tempting at [1.9]. Armenia have been deeply unimpressive in the Nations League so far, scraping a 2-1 win over Liechtenstein and losing 2-0 in Macedonia.
Armenia have failed to score in four of their last six games, so I believe this game will stay under the 3.5 goals line.
Points Staked: 146
Points Returned: 159.24
P/L: +13.24 points