Sporting Gijon v Granada
Sunday March 19, 17:30 GMT
After finishing 17th and 16th respectively last season, these two teams are in big trouble this year as they're 19th and 18th now, seven and six points away from safety.
That makes this match an absolute must win for the pair of them. The loser is surely doomed and destined for the second tier, while the winner will close the gap to one or both of Leganes and Malaga - who also face each other today.
The hosts are odds-on to take the three points but they've won just one of their last 13 La Liga fixtures and that was away at Leganes. At home it's just one win in 11 and eight of the other 10 ended in defeat.
As much as I'd love to write about Granada's resilience on the road now, I really can't. They've played 14 times away from home this season and 11 of them have seen them come out on the losing side. The other three were draws, but the last one was in December.
Saying that, I just can't trust a Gijon outfit who are in such bad form. There is no way that they deserve to be odds-on, so with their price trading at around the [1.95] mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Sporting Gijon v Granada @ [1.95]
2017 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 57 pts
Returned: 54.43 pts
P/L: -2.57 pts