Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao
Thursday March 2, 20:30 GMT
The White and Reds still have one eye on the title and with Real Madrid dropping points recently, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Sevilla could keep their challenge going into the final month or two of the campaign.
The visitors are in eighth place but they would be higher if they didn't have such a miserable away record. Bilbao won two of their first three on the road this term but since then it's been two points from a possible 24.
Ernesto Valverde's side failed to score in their four most recent away outings and four of their last six have seen over 2.5 layers collect. They have only scored more than once in one away game this season and five of the 11 matches have seen them fire blanks.
I don't expect the Basque Country club to be taken to the cleaners by Sevilla tonight however as the hosts have been fairly economical at home this year.
They beat Eibar 2-0 most recently and prior to that they drew 0-0 with Villarreal. Admittedly only four of their last nine on this ground would have seen this selection land, but nerves could start to creep in now - especially with Real Madrid being held at the Bernabeu yesterday.
I'm happy to take a chance on there being fewer goals than expected in this one, so with over 2.5 trading at around the [1.8] mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Over 2.5 Goals in Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao @ [1.8]
2017 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 45 pts
Returned: 42.74 pts
P/L: -2.26 pts