Paul Robinson kicks off the week in Brazil as he thinks that there will be more goals than expected when Cruzeiro take on Gremio.
"At the other end, the visitors have conceded seven goals, which means that their matches are averaging 3.57 goals each time."
Cruzeiro v Gremio
Tuesday June 20, 00:00 BST
This fixture features the current entertainers of the Campeonato as Gremio are the leading scorers with 18 goals, which is four more than their nearest rivals and they've even played a game less than every other team other than Cruzeiro.
At the other end, the visitors have conceded seven goals, which means that their matches are averaging 3.57 goals each time. That stat is skewed by a 6-3 victory at Chapecoense, but it's still worth noting that they have netted at least twice in each of their four away games this season and in addition to that 6-3 win, they also had a 4-3 defeat.
At the other end of the spectrum we have Cruzeiro, who's fixtures are averaging a mere 1.43 goals each time. All seven of them have gone under 2.5 and they failed to find the net at Corinthians in the week.
The only real positive is that Mano Menezes' men have played three times at home this term and on two occasions, this selection missed out by just a single goal.
It's at this point you are thinking that opposing unders isn't the way to go, but betting is all about odds and given the way Gremio have been playing, I have to feel that under 2.5 goals is just too short. Which is why, with it trading at around the [1.69] mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Under 2.5 Goals in Cruzeiro v Gremio @ [1.69]
2017 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 129 pts
Returned: 124.14 pts
P/L: -4.86 pts
Get the Best Odds on English football with Betfair!
Betfair has had the best odds on all domestic English league football since the start of December. So when you win, you win bigger! Click here for full details