Against All Odds: Plenty of goals in FA Cup replay

Paul Robinson
05 December 2013

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The first round of the FA Cup will be completed tonight as Gateshead take on Oxford United and Paul Robinson is predicting plenty of goals for the clash that is live on BT Sport 1 at 19:45 GMT.

"The goals have been flying in during matches involving Gary Mills’ side as four of their last five have gone over 3.5 goals, with three of them even going over 4.5."

Lay Under 3.5 goals in Gateshead v Oxford United @ 1.422/5

Non-league Gateshead came within a whisker of winning this tie the first time around as they led 2-0 at League Two's Oxford United before being pegged back by 77th and 90th minute goals. They've not let that disappointment have a negative effect on them though as since then they've won three of their next four outings in all competitions.

The goals have been flying in during matches involving Gary Mills' side as four of their last five have gone over 3.5 goals, with three of them even going over 4.5. The Tynesiders have netted seven in their last two at home but let in three themselves at the other end.

Oxford United are flying high at the top of League Two so it was somewhat of a surprise that they struggled so badly in the original match of this tie. In truth though they dominated the game and I make them strong favourites to get the job done this evening.

It's the goals we're interested in though and Chris Wilder's men know how to score them. With 30 netted so far this term they are the second highest scorers in their division and they've fired just two blanks on the road this season. Six of their last 10 away from the Kassam Stadium have had four goals or more and they will be keen to avoid extra time tonight.

This isn't a 'dead cert' but it's definitely a value selection. Under 3.5 goals is just too short at around the 1.422/5 mark, which is why I'm making it my lay of the day.

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 330 pts
Returned: 331.63 pts
P/L + 1.63 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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