Italy and Uruguay are set to do battle for third and fourth place in the Confederations Cup this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune into BBC3 at 17:00 will see a low scoring affair.
"The Uruguayans have seen all four of their matches at the Confederations Cup go over 2.5 goals, however prior to that, Óscar Tabárez’s men had been involved with four games that went under 2.5."
The Italians were desperately unlucky not to beat Spain in the semi-finals. After dominating the first half and plenty of the second, they failed to convert their opportunities and ended up losing on penalties. The Azzurri put so much into that match that one wonders how much they'll have left in the tank for what is a relatively meaningless fixture today.
Cesare Prandelli will likely make plenty of changes to give some of his squad players a run-out and it's doubtful that Andrea Pirlo will be involved. Mario Balotelli will definitely be absent through injury and his killer instinct in front of goal was missed against the Spanish.
Uruguay put up a spirited performance in their semi-final with tournament hosts Brazil and if Diego Forlan had converted his early penalty then the result could have been quite different. The former Manchester United player was restored to the starting line-up earlier in the competition following his team's abject display in their opening group game against Spain.
The Uruguayans have seen all four of their matches at the Confederations Cup go over 2.5 goals, however prior to that, Óscar Tabárez's men had been involved with four games that went under 2.5. The manager has the likes of Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani at his disposal, but they haven't really clicked together in a while and even an under strength Italy defence could well keep them quiet.
This could end up 3-3 or 0-0 but the odds of over 2.5 dictate that the value play is to take it on. That's why, with it trading around the [1.81] mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Italy v Uruguay @ [1.81]
2013 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 180 pts
Returned: 170.85 pts
P/L – 9.15 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)