Plymouth travel to Bradford tonight on the back of four defeats from five but Paul Robinson believes they can upset the odds and get a result.
"Bradford have slipped down to eighth in League Two after picking up just one win from their last four."
Bradford have slipped down to eighth in League Two after picking up just one win from their last four. Phil Parkinson's side had looked like candidates for automatic promotion after three consecutive victories towards the end of September, but things have dropped off since then as the Bantams have picked up only 12 points from a possible 30.
The problem for Bradford, especially at Valley Parade, has been a lack of goals, something which the manager addressed in the local press this week as he bemoaned their lack of creativity. A 0-1 loss to Exeter on Saturday meant that it's now two blanks in a row in front of their own fans and the crowd could get on the players backs if things remain goalless going into the second half.
At first glance, Plymouth are on a dire run that has seen them lose four of five and manage just a draw in the other one. While that is true, there are plenty of mitigating circumstances that give me hope that they can get a result this evening.
All five of the teams they faced during that period are currently placed in the top seven in the league. Aside from the 3-0 loss to Fleetwood, the other three defeats were all by a single goal margin. They led in the matches against Cheltenham, Burton and Gillingham, and in the aforementioned 3-0 loss against Fleetwood, the score was only 1-0 until they were reduced to 10 men late in the game.
Before that run, Carl Fletcher's side had been going great guns; two defeats in 10, four victories and just one loss away from Home Park all season.
I appreciate that confidence and momentum are huge factors in football, but Bradford aren't exactly in great form either and their price of 1.834/5 does seem a little short given the circumstances. I think Plymouth have a strong chance of picking up a result here, so that's why I'm making Bradford my lay of the day.
Lay Bradford against Plymouth @ 1.834/5
2012 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 263 pts
Returned: 273.98 pts
P/L + 10.98 pts