Serie A Betting: Juve leaky in Lecce, Milan march on Rome

Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates for Juventus
Cristiano Ronaldo guarantees goals, but Juventus are conceding plenty too

Dave Farrar predicts leaders Juventus won't keep a clean sheet, the first victory of the Stefano Pioli era will be at the Olimpico, and Claudio Ranieri's Sampdoria have a tight trip to Bologna...

“When you consider that they’ve failed to keep out the opposition in their last three, you can see that Lecce have every chance of finding their way past this Juventus back line.”

Not so simple at Lecce

Lecce v Juventus
Saturday, 14:00

After a jaw grindingly frustrating time of it last weekend, we get back on the Serie A train with a slightly underwhelming set of fixtures, the peak of which will come on Sunday afternoon as Roma face Milan. More on that in a moment, but first the quest to find a couple of other winners.

Lecce are rightly and understandably big outsiders to beat Juventus, and it's a game which Juve should certainly win, but their defensive vulnerability under Maurizio Sarri is making them more interesting to watch than usual, and I think that gives Lecce a chance at least of making a game of this.

Juve have played 11 competitive games this season, and have kept a clean sheet in just four of those, which is below their usual high standards. When you consider that they've failed to keep out the opposition in their last three, you can see that Lecce have every chance of finding their way past a back line which is missing Giorgio Chiellini.

Lecce are predictably down at the wrong end of the table, but above the relegation zone at least, and they are finding the net with regularity. Fabio Liverani's team have scored in five of their last six games, and they have plenty of attacking talent as well as Marco Mancosu's goals from midfield.

I think that "Yes" in the Both Teams to Score market is a little big here at even money, and while I expect Juventus to keep up the pressure on Inter, I wouldn't be surprised if it's tougher than many might predict.

Milan revival in Rome

Roma v Milan
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video and Premier 1

The Rossoneri started life under Stefano Pioli with an unnecessarily hard fought draw against Lecce, so there'll be plenty of doom mongers suggesting that Pioli is too predictable and that Milan's struggles will continue. I think, however, that the former Lazio coach is capable of inspiring Milan to a top five finish, and believe that he may kickstart his tenure with a win at the Olimpico.

Much of that confidence is based on the condition of Milan's opponents. Roma are down to the bare bones in terms of personnel after their ridiculous injury list lengthened yet further at Sampdoria last weekend.

Paulo Fonseca is now missing almost an entire team, and with an injured Edin Dzeko leading the line, and crucial players missing all over the field, this is a great chance for Milan to take advantage.

I know that Pioli has inherited a disjointed and dispirited squad, but Milan do possess quality, and it was good to see Krzysztof Piatek back on the scoresheet last weekend. I think Pioli will make them better, give them the motivation that they've been missing, and pull off a big win at the Olimpico early on Sunday evening. They're also too big a price to do so.

Tight game at the Dall'Ara

Bologna v Sampdoria
Sunday, 11:30
Live on Betfair Live Video and Premier 1

Bologna can be thrilling to watch, and extremely effective as well, but Sampdoria looked a different proposition last week against Roma, and I think that Claudio Ranieri will continue that good work as Samp head for Emilia-Romagna this weekend.

Samp didn't threaten Roma as much as they would have liked, but for the first time this season they looked solid defensively, and their excellent goalkeeper Emil Audero was rarely tested in what turned into a drab game.

Bologna are not quite the crazy funsters that they became at the end of the last campaign as they avoided relegation so thrillingly, and if you couple that fact with an improved and negative Samp, then Under 2.5 Goals looks a decent bet at odds against.

Ranieri will try and build his new team from the back and so defence will once again be Samp's focus, and they're good enough to get the job done against Bologna, who have only seen four of their eight games so far this season go Over 2.5 Goals.

This looks a solid "unders" bet at an attractive price.

2019-20 P/L

Staked: 21 Points
Return: 21.03 points
P/L: + 0.03 points

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