Serie A Tips: Roma break Juve home run, Atalanta beat Inter to second

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Dave Farrar predicts the Scudetto winners will put their feet up and suffer their first home defeat of the season, La Dea to take silver and a final Sassuolo flourish...

“Roma come here on a run of 6 wins in 7, are scoring goals and playing with fluency, and will be confident of finishing the season with a big scalp. They’re priced at [3.6] to win and that looks a terrific bet.”

Juve already clocked out

Juventus v Roma
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video

I was kicking myself on Wednesday night for not supporting Cagliari at a price to beat Juventus. They duly did, and I suppose that I was surprised that the Sardinians, who've been really poor lately, had even enough for the demotivated Champions.

Roma have more than enough, and while the line will go that Juventus will be much more motivated on Sunday night, and won't want to end the domestic campaign with a defeat, the bare facts are that they are confirmed as Champions, Cristiano Ronaldo isn't going to be Capocannoniere, and they've been outplayed or beaten in all of their last seven games, barring the win over Lazio.

Roma come here on a run of six wins in seven matches, are scoring and playing with fluency, and will be confident of finishing the season with a big scalp. They're priced at [3.6] to win and that looks a terrific bet.

Juve failed to win any of their final five games last season once they had the title wrapped up, and so they have form in this regard. On the penultimate day of that campaign, Roma beat them 2-0, and in these laboratory conditions, something similar may well be on the cards. Maurizio Sarri even said he could just field the Under-23 team, resting everyone ahead of the Champions League.

Historic second for Atalanta

Atalanta v Inter
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

As we stagger towards the end of this remarkable Serie A season, we head to a final weekend on which there's not really a great deal to play for, save a relegation battle featuring Lecce and Genoa, and an argument over which order the top four will be shuffled in.

Of course, fourth place may yet not get you a Champions League place in Italy, but that eventuality would require Napoli to win this season's UCL and Roma the Europa League, so whoever finishes fourth should be safe.

The battle for second will be on Saturday between Atalanta and Inter. With teams looking so tired, and rotating so frequently, it's hard to be confident when predicting an outcome. My advice would be that normal rules really don't apply, so keep stakes as sensible as they should always be. This is a long way from a weekend of certainties.

On balance, though, I thought that Inter looked out on their feet against Napoli on Tuesday night. They know that defeat here will allow Atalanta to leapfrog them into second, and both teams know that a draw tees it up for Lazio, but Atalanta seem to have remarkable reserves of energy, and I can see them running a team off their feet for one final time in this Serie A season.

Atalanta have won nine of 12 since the resumption, drawing the other three, and only failing when fate conspired against them or their eyes were briefly off the ball. I think they'll have too much for a fading Inter, who may well be Champions next season, but who could finish this campaign with a plaintive whimper.

Caputo closes on a high

Sassuolo v Udinese
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video

Finally for this season, I'll turn to an old favourite in Sassuolo, who thrashed Genoa 5-0 in midweek, and looked great in doing so. That came after they'd been so unfortunate in Naples at the weekend, and they look like they'll be too good for an Udinese team who have confirmed their Serie A place, but who have some improving to do.

I tipped Francesco Caputo at a stupid price to be top scorer this season, and his 21 goals would have been enough in quite a few campaigns, but not this one. Still, he's been remarkable, and so too have the likes of Domenico Berardi and Jeremie Boga. Sassuolo are rarely bad to watch.

They're trading at [2.2] to finish with a flourish and I'm surprised to see them odds against. Udinese are nothing special, have battled hard to stay up, and will be looking for a rest that they're unlikely to get on Sunday.

So that's the final recommendation of the season, and that means that it's time for me to wish you and your families well, to apologise that our numbers are down a little this season, and to remind you that the greatest League in the world will be back in early September. Until then, take care and stay sensible.

Dave’s Serie A P/L – 2019/20

Staked: 105 Points
Return: 102.25 points
P/L: -2.75 points

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