Serie A Tips: Inter gunning for Napoli, Immobile's Capocannoniere chance

Lazio striker Ciro Immobile celebrates
Ciro Immobile can win Capocannoniere, the Golden Boot and set a new Serie A record
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3:30 min read

Dave Farrar looks at the midweek Serie A action, predicting the Nerazzurri will show what could've happened this season, Ciro Immobile will run riot with Brescia while Sampdoria-Milan can entertain...

“They look focused and ready for these last two games of the season, while Napoli’s attention is wandering. I think Inter rate a decent bet here at odds against.”

Inter so close and so far

Inter v Napoli
Tuesday, 20:45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

If they don't get better and flourish under Antonio Conte in the 2020/21 season and beyond, then this will always be the campaign that got away for Inter. So many points thrown away, so many good displays not rewarded, a lack of winning mentality costing them when it mattered most.

The statistics show that Juventus are the best team in Serie A, our eyes tell us that Atalanta are the most watchable team in Serie A, but our hearts tell us that Inter *should* have WON Serie A. Consider the mistakes they've made, and then the fact that they are only seven points behind Juve. The story could have been so different.

It looks as if Conte's side are at least finishing the season strongly, and they are trading at [2.12] to beat a Napoli team with little to play for. Napoli may have beaten Sassuolo on Saturday night, but were fortunate to do so, and I think Inter will fancy that they can take a step closer to securing second place.

Inter have won three of their last five and were impressive against a rather desperate Genoa last time. They look focused and ready for these last two games of the season, while Napoli's attention is wandering. I think Inter rate a decent bet here at odds against.

Immobile to run riot

Lazio v Brescia
Wednesday, 18:30
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

I got Brescia wrong last week at Lecce and I got Lazio similarly wrong away against Verona last time. Lazio look to have got over their spell of sluggishness, are primed to push for second, and also try to secure a triple crown for Ciro Immobile: the European Golden Boot, the Capocannoniere title, and the new Serie A season goalscoring record.

Immobile is on 34 goals at the moment and, with a trip to Napoli on the final day on the horizon, he and his teammates know that a home game against an awful Brescia side is Immobile's real chance to make sure of all three end of season rewards.

Brescia have conceded six against both Inter and Atalanta since lockdown, and something similar, with so many subplots in the game from a Lazio perspective, may well be on the cards here. We could have a straightforward look at the goals markets, but I think that I'll play the Correct Score market, and take the [2.9] that's available about "any other home win". As long as Lazio score four, then we'll be fine, and with the 4-4 draw no realistic danger, that's the best route.

Someone asked me this week who my Serie A player of the season is, and it absolutely has to be Immobile. If he can cement that trio of records this week, then his claims will be even stronger.

Samp inspire Milan goals

Sampdoria v Milan
Wednesday, 18:30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

On the face of it, Sampdoria's excellent run of form has come to an end after defeats against Genoa and Juventus, but anyone who watched those games will know that they're still playing well (they were excellent against Juve) and still pushing forward. They're [5.4] to beat Milan this midweek which looks too big to me, but I prefer to take a price about there being Over 3.5 Goals in the game.

Legs are getting tired in Serie A, but both of these teams have rotated usefully, and the news that Stefano Pioli will remain at San Siro next season, as sanity prevailed, has given the club a real boost.

All of that means that this could be quite a game. Both like to play expansively, both are normally adept at converting chances, and if there's an early goal at Marassi then this will be a game to sit back and enjoy.

All ten of Milan's post lockdown games have featured at least 2 goals, 8 have had at least 3, and 6 have gone Over 3.5. Samp's figures are similar enough to catch the eye, and, if the legs are there still, then these are two styles which could blend nicely and prove very easy on the eye.

Dave’s Serie A P/L – 2019/20

Staked: 102 Points
Return: 97.23 points
P/L: -4.77 points

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