Serie A Betting: Back Milan to continue top four push

Milan forward Suso
Suso broke his goal drought for Milan and is seeking more goals with Fiorentina

Dave Farrar predicts Fiorentina will hit a new low against the Rossoneri, Cagliari to extend Lazio's poor streak and attack to beat defence at the Dall'Ara...

“Milan have won just one of their last seven games at this stadium, but I think they’re good enough, and motivated enough, to come back and haunt their former boss Montella.”

Milan haunt Montella

Fiorentina v Milan
Saturday, 19:30
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

Fiorentina have been one of the most disappointing teams in Serie A this season, and they look to be stumbling towards the finishing line, for all that their change of coach may give their fans some hope for the next campaign.

La Viola haven't won since February 17, and haven't won at home in the League since December 16, and now they've stumbled to four consecutive defeats, as Vincenzo Montella looks to re-find his feet at the Artemio Franchi.

With Fiorentina down in 13th in Serie A (only eight points away from relegation, remarkably), Milan are pushing for an unlikely place in the Champions League. Unlikely because their season started so poorly, because Gennaro Gattuso looked to be history at Christmas time, and because a late season slump seemed to have cost them everything.

With three games in hand, though, Milan are just three points behind fourth-placed Atalanta, and wins in each of their final three games will give them a chance. They'll be without Lucas Paqueta here, but I liked the character that they showed to beat Bologna last time. If they can't quite outclass Fiorentina, I think that they'll outbattle them.

Milan have won just one of their last seven games at this stadium, but I think they're good enough, and motivated enough, to come back and haunt their former boss Montella.

Gattuso 1280.jpg

Cagliari take Lazio scalp

Cagliari v Lazio
Saturday, 17:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

Given how good Cagliari are at home, and given that Lazio have a Coppa Italia final for which to prepare on Wednesday, I think that it might be worth taking a chance on the Sardinians to give themselves a late season boost.

Lazio were schooled by Atalanta on Sunday, and they looked dejected as their final hopes of a Champions League place sailed into the distance. Momentum is against them, and that Cup Final will be taking some of their focus.

Cagliari have won five of their last six home games (the odd one out was a forgivable loss against Juventus), and it's their form in Sardinia which has largely kept them comfortably clear of relegation. They have a dreadful recent record against Lazio, winning just one of their last 13 against them in the League, but I'm not too bothered about that piece of history.

After losing with credit at both Roma and Napoli in the last two weeks, Cagliari will be happy to be home, and I think they'll fancy their chances of finally taking a big scalp.

Exciting Emilia-Romagna Derby

Bologna v Parma
Monday, 18:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

With some of the bigger names not really of much betting interest this weekend, let's turn our eye to Monday night and Bologna's chance to cement their late season surge and move above Parma in the table.

Parma are much better away from home than they are at the Ennio Tardini this season, and so I'm reluctant to pile in too heavily on the home team here at around 1.8810/11, but it could still be a fixture of interest for us.

Parma's 17 away games so far this season have produced 51 goals, and with Bologna sure to adopt the attacking tactics that have served them so well under Sinisa Mihajlovic, I think that we'll see more goals here.

Seven of Bologna's last eight games have had at least three goals, and I fancy Parma to score here, which increases the chance of this game featuring at least four, and I think that, at the prices, it's worth looking at Over 3.5 Goals rather than the more obvious home win at a shorter price, although there's every chance of Bologna making it six consecutive home wins in Serie A.

Both teams are severely weakened by bans, as Juraj Kucka and Antonino Barillà are suspended for the visitors, with Nicola Sansone, Andrea Poli and Mitchell Dijks on the naughty step at the Stadio Dall'Ara.

2018-19 P/L

Staked: 105 points
Returned: 114.21 points
P/L: + 9.21 points

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