Serie A Betting: Get set for a goal-crazy weekend

With Carlos Bacca suspended, Milan look to Gianluca Lapadula to score against Genoa.
With Carlos Bacca suspended, Milan look to Gianluca Lapadula to score against Genoa.
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Dave Farrar predicts Milan to get back on track immediately, a Zdenek Zeman special in Bergamo and Torino-Inter goals galore.

“Before that Juve game, Milan were on a roll after four wins in five matches, and I don't see any reason for that not to continue.”

Milan v Genoa
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3

I don't know if I'm missing something about the Milan v Genoa Match Odds market, but Milan look big to me at 1.715/7 to beat a Genoa side with only one win since December 15. Genoa have a new-ish Coach in the shape of Andrea Mandorlini, but if he's making improvements, they're gradual ones, and Milan look rock solid.

The Rossoneri were unfortunate to lose to Juventus last week, but as this column suggested, they put up an excellent performance, and will be smarting at the nature of the last-minute penalty that they conceded. As it happens, I find the hoo-ha and conspiracy theorising faintly ridiculous, as I thought that it was a clear penalty, but that's a different argument for a different day.

Before that Juve game, Milan were on a roll after four wins in five matches, and I don't see any reason for that not to continue. Alessio Romagnoli, Carlos Bacca and Jose Sosa are suspended after the Juve debacle, and there are injury issues too for Suso, but they have enough strength in depth. They'll also be looking for revenge after losing 3-0 at Genoa earlier in the season.

Genoa's sole win since December was against awful Empoli, and they needed two late goals to make sure of that. The weakness of the bottom four means that they aren't in any danger of relegation, but I think that their season from now on could be a non-event, especially after losing the derby to Sampdoria, and they face another defeat this weekend at San Siro.

Recommended Bet
Back Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.715/7

Atalanta v Pescara
Sunday, 14:00

If Milan were suffering after conceding that late penalty, then it's hard to imagine how Atalanta felt having been humiliated by Inter to the tune of seven goals. It's obviously embarrassing to put up a lay of Inter in this column and then to watch that happen, but there was logic in the bet, and it was just one of those days.

I fully expect Atalanta to come roaring back against Serie A's bottom club this weekend, and regular readers of this column will probably guess where I'm going next. I've preached the "Zdenek Zeman equals goals" line for many years on this website and that logic has been successful for us in the last two weeks. With Over 3.5 Goals still trading at odds against for this one, I see no reason to change my tune.

Atalanta will be hurting and can be extremely dangerous, Pescara will be open against them and will look awfully vulnerable defensively. It's really the only way that I can see the game developing and it could be one of those Serie A games that pops up occasionally: a 6-2 or 5-3. I'm happy at the prices, though, to hope for at least four goals, and to expect them as well.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Atalanta v Pescara @ 2.0811/10

Torino v Inter
Saturday, 17:00

Despite the potential of the "curse of the Saturday 5pm game" hanging over it, I also think that there'll be goals in Turin as Torino face Inter. Inter showed their capability in front of goal last weekend, and Torino have the top scorer in Serie A leading the line in Andrea Belotti.

This will be billed as a face-off between Belotti and the man who's just two behind in the Capocannoniere standings, Mauro Icardi, but in truth it's much more than that.

It's a test of just where Inter are under Stefano Pioli. Can they build on last weekend's romp and move closer to the top three. Can they find a way to Champions League football in this brave new Nerazzurri world?

I'm still not sure about the idea of Inter as Scudetto winners next year, although I can see the logic behind it. What they WILL always be is entertaining, as 18 goals in their last three games shows all too clearly.

Torino's last five Serie A games have all gone Over 3.5 Goals, and 2.68/5 is a perfectly fair price for this one to make it six, as a popular red hot striker goes head to head with a deeply unpopular one.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Torino v Inter @ 2.68/5

Season P/L 2016/17

Staked: 84 points
Returned: 96.58 points
P/L: +12.58 points

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