Dave Farrar predicts overs in Napoli-Fiorentina and Lazio-Inter, while Cagliari can surprise Sassuolo...
“La Viola have scored in all but one of their last nine, and given the fact that more often than not Napoli concede goals at home, there's enough reason to feel that Sousa's side will get at least one goal.”
Napoli v Fiorentina
Live on BT Sport 2
Saturday night's big Serie A game is all about Napoli: they're secure in third place, theoretically still in with a chance of the title, and certainly have high hopes of finishing second. Fiorentina head for the San Paolo after a really impressive win against in-form Lazio, and my depiction of them as having one foot on the beach last week was clearly a little unfair.
Napoli are [1.3] to get the win, and that seems fair enough given La Viola's poor away record, but I think that Paulo Sousa's team will manage to at least score in Naples, and could even make life hard for Maurizio Sarri.
The reverse fixture was one of the games of the season so far, with Federico Bernardeschi dazzling and then Manolo Gabbiadini grabbing a late equaliser with the last kick of the game. That match finished 3-3, and with both teams continuing to score and concede, I feel that there are sure to be goals on Saturday.
Fiorentina have conceded goals in each of their last six League outings, at an average of 2.3 per game, and have conceded at least two in each of their last seven away fixtures. It doesn't bode well for their chances of success.
That said, La Viola have scored in all but one of their last nine, and given the fact that more often than not Napoli concede goals at home, there's enough reason to feel that Sousa's side will get at least one goal.
I think that Napoli will be too strong, and will more than likely win 3-1 or 4-1, and the best bet is for there to be Over 3.5 Goals in the game at just over even money.
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Napoli v Fiorentina @ [2.02]
Lazio v Inter
Live on BT Sport 1
There'll also be goals in Rome when Lazio host hapless Inter on Sunday night. Much was made of the Inter fans' magnificent protest and banner during last weekend's home defeat by Sassuolo, but let's be clear: they have every right to be angry. After a superb run that made you start to believe that they could even get into a Champions League place, they have fallen apart.
Even I felt that Inter were emerging as the main challengers to Juventus next season, but the need for change at the club runs so deep that I fear that more under-achievement may be likely. They've now lost six of their last seven (four in a row), and haven't won since that remarkable 7-1 home victory against Atalanta.
They go to Lazio, who were a little chastened by their defeat in Florence last week, but I expect Simone Inzaghi's team to come roaring back from both that defeat and their loss to Juve in the Cup Final on Wednesday night.
Lazio's last two home games have produced 18 goals, and with Inter also involved in plenty of high-scoring games, over 3.5 goals is the play here as well - because of a worry about just how poor Inter are, you can back the probability of at least four goals at [2.6] and that's a price well worth taking, especially given that Lazio's last five league games have averaged 6.2 goals per game.
There are a few extra problems for Inter, specifically that Mauro Icardi is injured and Geoffrey Kondogbia suspended, so Rodrigo Palacio could get a rare start. Maybe Gabigol will finally get to play more than 15 minutes, too.
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Lazio v Inter @ [2.6]
Sassuolo v Cagliari
Tempted though I am to tip Bologna to win at Milan at a big price, I'll finish by tipping Cagliari to get something from their trip to Sassuolo. You can back Cagliari +1 on the Asian Handicap, and even though their away record is no match for their form at home, I think that they have enough to trouble Eusebio Di Francesco's side.
Sassuolo have never beaten Cagliari in Serie A, lost a thriller 4-3 in the reverse fixture and have won just once in their last eight Serie A home games. I know that Sassuolo won at Inter last week, and that's why their strong favourites here, but that away form in what was a free hit of a game won't necessarily translate into a win here.
Sassuolo have lost a remarkable nine times at home this season, and while Cagliari have only avoided away defeat on five occasions, I think that Massimo Rastelli's team have improved in recent weeks and are set for a strong conclusion to a successful season.
Back Cagliari +1 on the Asian Handicap @ [2.2]
Staked: 108 points
Returned: 119.13 points
P/L: + 11.13 points