Saturday Championship Tips: Bees a strong play to make it five in their hive

James Buttler
28 September 2018

Another win for Sheffield United looks inevitable

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James Buttler finds value in Brentford, West Brom and Sheffield Utd wins in Saturday's Championship matches...

"One of the key reasons for Brentford's early success has been the prolific form of striker Neal Maupay. The 22-year-old Frenchman has grabbed eight goals so far this season in seven starts and will be catching the eye of Premier League scouts."

Maupay to provide the goals as Bees home run continues

Brentford 1.511/2 v Reading 7.613/2; The Draw 4.67/2

Brentford are building a home record that is the envy of the rest of the division. You can judge a team's run of form, not just on how many points they accrue, but on who they get them against.

The Bees have four wins, 12 points, and 11 goals scored with just two conceded at Griffin Park. Victories against Wigan, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield Wednesday, after a morale boosting home 5-1 bow against Rotherham United, have all seen Brentford ahead at half-time too. The first three of those opponents sit in the top half of the table and have promotion aspirations of their own.

Brentford's home dominance goes deeper than the start of this season. The Bees have lost just two of their last 26 Championship games on home soil (W13, D11, L2) and are unbeaten in their last nine (W6, D3).

In short, Brentford are four-from-four and flying in front of their hometown support. If Dean Smith's side could only fathom a way of taking wins on the road they'd be higher than their current seventh in the table.

One of the key reasons for Brentford's early success has been the prolific form of striker Neal Maupay. The 22-year-old Frenchman has grabbed eight goals so far this season in seven starts and will be catching the eye of Premier League scouts. Importantly, for this bet, Maupay has netted in all three home matches (he missed one home game and one away through suspension), where he has scored five times.

Reading are showing signs of improvement, with two wins from their last three matches, but will find a trip to Brentford a daunting proposition. Their eight points from nine played leaves them close to the drop zone, but they are good for a goal themselves having scored at least once in their last six games, despite winning just the two.

There are a number of ways into this game. Take any permutation of Brentford to win, Both Teams To Score and Maupay to grab a goal and you'll be in with a great chance of success.

This game also screams goals. Brentford have scored at least twice in their last four home games and Over 2.5 has landed in the last four Championship matches that Reading have played. Reading haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 23 visits to Brentford in all competitions, which doesn't bode well for the visitors.

Baggies full of goals ahead of trip to Deepdale

Preston 3.211/5 v West Brom 2.427/5; The Draw 3.45

Preston were a side I fancied to threaten the Play-Off positions this season, but so far they have done little to repay my faith. They have failed to win any of their last eight Championship games (D2, L6), which is their longest winless run since October 2015. With Alex Neil's men desperate to find form the visit of West Brom on Saturday isn't ideal.

Midfielder Ben Pearson will be back for the Lilywhites after serving a three-match suspension, but it is the defence that needs to find a change in fortunes. They have leaked at least two goals in their last seven Championship matches.

Darren Moore's Albion are one of the form side's with strikers Dwight Gayle and Jay Rodriquez in prolific nick. Ignore the midweek defeat to Crystal Palace where Moore rested most of his big guns. WBA have a league high 22 goals behind them with Gayle scoring four in the last four, with Rodriquez bagging two.

As a team, Albion have been prolific at home with four convincing wins on the bounce. Away from The Hawthornes it's been tougher work (W1, D2, L1), but momentum, goals and a rise to third in the table have restored Baggies' hopes of a swift return to the top tier.

If Albion are to take three points on Saturday, for the first time at Deepdale in the league since January 1959, they have to overturn a run of three draws and eight defeats in the interim. This West Brom side are ready to break the trend, having lost just one of their last eight Championship games (W5, D2) scoring at least two goals in each of those victories.

While this should be a win for the Baggies and their price of 2.447/5 has huge appeal, Preston have scored at least two goals in their last three home league matches and therefore Both Teams To Score is a definite option.

Lions failing to roar

Millwall 3.211/5 v Sheff Utd 2.56/4; The Draw 3.3512/5

There is no way you can throw your money behind Millwall at the moment after they have lost five Championship games in six and look far too comfortable in the relegation zone. Don't expect too many goals in this one either as the last three Millwall matches have yielded Under 2.5 goals. Manager Neil Harris finds himself under scrutiny for a number of tactical blunders.

Visitors Sheffield United have recovered from a wobbly start to their campaign with five wins and a draw in their last seven league encounters.

Ollie Norwood has been dynamic in the Blades' midfield as the play-offs have well and truly come back on their radar. It seems inevitable that they take the three points this weekend.

History is however on Millwall's side as they have won 11 of their last 14 home league matches against Sheffield United and the Blades have won just one of their last seven league matches against Millwall (D2, L4). But the Sheffield side are by far the healthier of the two in display at The Den and look a sensible play to win at 2.56/4.

United, too, have scored at least two goals in each of their five wins this season. That makes Over 1.5 Match Goals a play.

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*You can follow James on Twitter - @football_badger

2018/19 P/L

Staked: 36 pts
Returned: 24.30 pts
P/L: -11.70 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

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