Wigan v Southampton: More cup magic for Latics

Mike Holden
17 March 2018

Will Grigg can continue his rich vein of scoring form in this season's FA Cup

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Wigan have a special relationship with the FA Cup and they can book their fifth trip to Wembley in five years with victory over Southampton...

"There's plenty of scope for an upset here. Southampton have been playing stodgy, uninspiring football for the past 18 months and that can be a difficult habit to shake. Hughes and his trusted backroom staff simply haven't been through the door long enough to impart too many ideas about how they intend to change that."

Wigan v Southampton
Sunday 13:30, Live on BBC One

Survival the priority for Saints

Mark Hughes takes charge of Southampton for the first time with what many punters would still consider to be a fairly routine FA Cup quarter-final against League One opposition, despite the fact that Wigan sensationally ended Manchester City's dreams of a quadruple in the last round.

The Welshman replaced Mauricio Pellegrino in the St Mary's hotseat earlier this week, after the Argentinian was sent packing following an abject 3-0 defeat at Newcastle last time out. That result left Saints just a point above the drop zone with just one win in 17 league matches.

Premier League survival is undoubtedly the priority, which made Hughes the standout candidate with nearly 450 top-flight matches on his CV, a level of experience that nobody else available could come close to. As a former Saints player, he arrives with plenty of goodwill from fans and the promise of a hefty financial bonus - reported to be in the region of £2m - if he staves off the drop.

So this game is barely an aside in that context but the FA Cup has given the Southampton players a welcome escape up to this point, bringing competent wins over Fulham (1-0), Watford (1-0) and West Brom (2-1). Pellegrino fielded his strongest side in all three of those matches.

Latics wrapped up in cup romance

Wigan's promotion charge has stuttered on the back of their FA Cup exploits. They dropped ten points in five matches either side of the City game, although they remain 1.758/11 favourites for the title on the back of a reaffirming last-gasp away win at Bradford (1-0) in midweek.

The 2013 winners are simply wrapped up in the romance of this competition. They've dumped out Premier League opposition in every round since January - disposing of Bournemouth and West Ham at the DW Stadium prior to their date with Pep Gurdiola's men - and there's little danger of their emotions being conflicted here.

Indeed, Paul Cook made three changes at Valley Parade with this game in mind and firmly believes he has the strength in depth to compete on both fronts. Top scorer Will Grigg - with seven of his 18 goals arriving in the FA Cup - was one of those rested in midweek, playing just 32 minutes a second-half substitute.

The Latics might have ridden their luck in the last round, helped by Fabian Delph's needless red card challenge on the stroke of half time, but those earlier wins against Bournemouth (3-0) and West Ham (2-0) were comprehensive and fully deserved.

Hughes' cup record hard to ignore

Hughes has reached the semi-finals of the FA Cup twice previously, way back in his Blackburn days when he suffered painful defeats to Arsenal at the Millennium Stadium in 2005 and Chelsea at Old Trafford in 2007.

But since then, his record in knockout competition has been blighted by a number of embarrassing exits. In the past decade, no fewer than eight teams from a lower division the scalp of four different Premier League clubs under his guidance.

It's a list that includes Bristol City in the Carabao Cup and Coventry in the FA Cup already this term, meaning the former Stoke boss now faces the ignominious prospect of being dumped out by lower league opposition three times in the same season.

How much a defeat here would be down to him is debatable but there's definitely something in his relaxed approach that doesn't lend itself to this type of challenge. If the Southampton players need geeing up for what's likely to be an intense battle, they might need to find that motivation from within themselves.

Early intensity could unsettle Saints

All things considered, there's plenty of scope for an upset here. Southampton have been playing stodgy, uninspiring football for the past 18 months and that can be a difficult habit to shake. Hughes and his trusted backroom staff simply haven't been through the door long enough to impart too many ideas about how they intend to change that.

All of which means the Saints could be sitting ducks if Wigan start in the manner they did in those games against the Cherries and the Hammers back in January, when they took the lead inside ten minutes on all three occasions (including the original 2-2 draw against Eddie Howe's men at Dean Court).

The Latics' special relationship with this competition in recent years shouldn't be underestimated. Victory here would mean a fifth trip to Wembley in the space of five years but it would also be the first opportunity for many of the current crop and there's a palpable excitement at the prospect that is barely perceptible in the pre-match coverage on the south coast.

A point on the home win at 4.2016/5 is advised, along with a speculative bet on the 2-1 correct score at 13.50. Wigan bagged seven goals across the three games against Bournemouth and West Ham and seized their one big moment when it came along against City, so it's well within their capabilities to find the net twice here.

Mike Holden Profit/Loss 2017-18

Staked: 121 pts
Returned: 92.65 pts
P/L: -28.35 pts

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