FA Cup / Michael Cox / 13 May 2011 /

A physical game is definitely on the cards in this Wembley showpiece says Michael Cox, and that could result in the game being a stop-start affair with few goals.

Manchester City are odds-on favourites going into their first FA Cup final in three decades, but Stoke are fresh off the back of an excellent win over Arsenal last weekend, and will be confident of another upset in their first-ever FA Cup final.

The build-up to the game has been dominated by injury news on both sides. Arguably each side's star player this season has been battling to be fit - Carlos Tevez came on in the midweek win over Tottenham, and is likely to start as captain, but Matthew Etherington is less likely to make the starting XI. Robert Huth is another doubt for Tony Pulis.

In what is likely to be a physical game, it's also worth considering that Stoke have had two extra days' rest than City. There's a chance they'll be in better shape coming into the game.

Notwithstanding injury problems, Pulis' outfield seems predictable. The back four of Andy Wilkinson, Ryan Shawcross, Robert Huth and Marc Wilson have started the last five league games together. Jermaine Pennant will start on the right, with Jonathan Walters and Kenwyne Jones likely to be the front two. The midfield is complicated by Etherington's injury. He'll be on the left if fit - if not, Rory Delap will play on that side with Glenn Whelan and Dean Whitehead in the centre. One of those, probably Whitehead, will make way if Etherington is in the side, with Delap coming inside into the middle.

Perhaps Pulis' biggest decision is in goal. Asmir Begovic is Stoke's first choice keeper, but Thomas Sorensen has started all the cup games - one will be disappointed.

Roberto Mancini has rotated his side throughout the season, and has more decisions to make. It's likely he'll want to play a physical side that can compete in the air, which should mean Micah Richards at right-back. Pablo Zabaleta and Aleksander Kolarov will compete for the left-back position - Zabaleta might be preferred for his defensive ability. He's likely to go with a relatively cautious midfield three, with Nigel de Jong holding, Gareth Barry just ahead, and Yaya Toure getting forward. David Silva will be joined by either Mario Balotelli or James Milner on the flanks, with Tevez upfront - though all this depends on Tevez returning, of course. Edin Dzeko may have to be content with a place on the bench despite starting the last two games.

Where will the game be won and lost? City will dominate possession, and Stoke will sit back on the edge of their own box as they did against Arsenal, so this might not turn out to be a particularly interesting clash between formations. The key will be whether City manage to break Stoke down, and whether they cope with the aerial threat at the back. I predict a slow start to the game, so [3.0] for it to be 0-0 at half time looks decent.

Stoke's aerial threat can be overstated - but having scored 50% of their goals from set-pieces this season, it's certainly the main thing to watch out for. Besides, City were knocked out of last year's FA Cup against Pulis' side because they couldn't deal with Delap's long throws, and looked vulnerable last weekend in the air against Everton, where they conceded two headed goals.

Stoke try and chuck the ball into the penalty box as often as possible. Despite City likely to dominate possession, they win relatively few corners - especially when David Silva is playing (as explained here) - so Stoke to win more corners is a good bet at around [3.4]. They won more in the previous meeting between the sides, although that was at the Britannia Stadium.

The aerial contest will influence Mancini's team selection - more height - and also how his side plays when they have possession. Mancini has always been keen to state the need to 'play football' against Stoke, to get the ball down and keep it, rather than give them the opportunity to thump long balls forward. Watch for both Silva and Tevez dropping deep - probably untracked by Stoke's defenders, who will remain deep - to outnumber Stoke in midfield.

Pulis will try and compete in that zone by dropping Walters on to de Jong when Stoke don't have the ball. In addition to set-pieces, Pennant's delivery from the flanks will be a threat. He'll start on the right, but may swap to the left (as he did against Arsenal, scoring from that side) when Delap comes across to take throws, and is probably Stoke's key player.

Recommended Bets
Back 0-0 in Half Time Score market at [3.0]
Back Stoke in Corners Match Bet at [3.4]

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