The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Hull

Michael Cox
15 May 2014

Could Aaron Ramsey be Arsenal's FA Cup final hero?

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A intriguing FA Cup final pits Arsenal, hoping to win their first trophy in nine years, against Hull, hoping to win the first major title in their history. Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the action...

"None of the previous 10 FA Cup finals have been won by more than a one-goal margin"

Back Arsenal to win 1-0 at 7.613/2

Arsenal v Hull
Saturday 17:00
Live on ITV1 and BT Sport 1

Match Odds (90 minutes): Arsenal 1.51/2, Hull 8.415/2, The Draw 4.67/2.
To lift the trophy: Arsenal 1.251/4, Hull 4.77/2.

A year after a famous FA Cup final giantkilling, Hull are looking to 'do a Wigan' against Arsenal this Saturday - and Steve Bruce might deploy similar tactics to the approach used by Roberto Martinez at Wembley last year.

Wigan's success was achieved with a defensive-minded system featuring five defenders, a formation Bruce used in over half of Hull's matches this season, including many times against big clubs.

Although Arsenal will field just one central striker (presumably Olivier Giroud despite the fact Yaya Sonogo has often featured in the FA Cup) which traditionally means a standard back four makes sense to prevent being overrun in midfield, Hull won't care about that too much.

Instead, they'll defend deep and soak up Arsenal pressure. If they attempt to compete in a good, open game of football they'll surely find themselves vulnerable to the pace and movement of Arsenal's attackers, and while Bruce won't tell his players to park the bus, it's difficult to imagine anything other than a cautious performance.

Regardless of whether he selects a back three or a four-man defence, it's also crucial that Hull are extremely narrow without the ball. Arsenal want to dominate the centre and work the ball between the lines for the likes of Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil, so Hull must ensure they crowd out Arsenal in these positions, conceding more space towards the touchlines.

Arsenal are capable of attacking from a number of angles, and the clever runs of Ozil means they're excellent at exploiting space in the channels - the German rarely picks the ball up direct in the centre of the pitch, and generally finds pockets of space in wider areas. This could be crucial against a side packing the centre of the pitch, and would allow Arsenal to work overloads down the flanks.

Ozil might be crucial without the ball, too. Although he's been unfairly criticised for being 'lazy' at times this season, his languid style is certainly a key feature of his game, and he's more likely to be found remaining in space to counter-attack quickly, rather than pressing his direct opponent.

This could be dangerous if Tom Huddlestone is allowed time on the ball to spray diagonals to the flanks, and more direct balls into attack - and Arsenal might find it is Aaron Ramsey charged with moving up the pitch to close down Huddlestone.

This could leave Mikel Arteta isolated, and while there's not one obvious individual that will cause Arsenal problems in open play, Hull might be threatening if they get midfield runners up towards their lone striker - who could be Matty Fryatt, Sone Aluko or Yannick Sagbo.

None of the trio are particularly adept at finding the net (their two major goalscorers, Shane Long and Nikica Jelavic, are both cup-tied) but are all good at bringing others into play.

Hull's other big chance is from set-pieces - they scored two more goals than Arsenal from dead ball situations this season in the Premier League, and considering there's a chance they could play three centre-backs, all useful in the air, good deliveries from corner kicks might be the single most important aspect of their attacking play.

Nevertheless, Arsenal are rightly strong favourites. It's worth remembering that none of the previous 10 FA Cup finals have been won by more than a one-goal margin, so expect another tight game this time around.

I think Ramsey will make the difference for Arsene Wenger's side, however - his energy should help to dominate the midfield, and his goalscoring form this season has been sensational. Back Ramsey to open the scoring at 8.615/2, and an Arsenal 1-0 victory at 7.613/2.

Recommended Bets

Back Aaron Ramsey to score first at 8.615/2
Back Arsenal to win 1-0 at 7.613/2

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Since the FA Cup returned to Wembley stadium in 2007 there have only been two finals that have produced over 2.5 goals, both games won by Chelsea (2009 and 2012) and also by the same 2-1 scoreline. This time around, Arsenal 10 time winners take on a Hull City side on Saturday evening looking to win it for the first time.

Once Hull qualified for the final by beating Sheffield United they only picked up one point from a possible 15 in the Premier League, including a 3-0 demolition by Arsenal at the KC Stadium – the single point was collected at Craven Cottage. Ironically, only Fulham finished the season with a worse record than Hull against top half opposition, Hull were defeated in 16 of their 20 attempts and kept only one clean sheet (Stoke 0-0). En-route to this final Hull faced Premier League opposition only once in the form of Sunderland in the quarter finals, winning 3-0 at home.

Although Arsenal enjoyed home advantage through to the semi-final, it wasn’t an easy route. They did though score eight goals in navigating their way past three of the top six finishers in the Premier League - Tottenham 2-0, Liverpool 2-1 & Everton 4-1. Their other victories came over Coventry 4-0, and Wigan in the semi-final courtesy of a penalty shootout.

The Gunners will be desperate to end their nine year wait for a trophy and they will be hard pushed to get a better opportunity than this. They have won their last six games against Hull scoring 15 goals and conceding just three. I am sure Steve Bruce won’t make it easy for Arsenal but I think they will get the job done. I will be dutching Arsenal to win 2-0 at 7.2 and 2-1 at 9.6 in the Correct Score market giving dutched odds of approx 4.1.

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