Sunderland v Southampton: Draw could be value if Poyet shows some Cup love

Joe Dyer
13 February 2014

Is Poyet up for another Cup run?

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These two teams have met on three occasions this season and with Southampton yet to win one of those games the value may lie away from the favourites, says Joe Dyer...

"The lineups will be revealing and you can expect a big shift towards Southampton if Poyet names a weaker than average XI - but if he doesn't then there's enough juice in the draw price to squeeze out a profit whether you let it ride, Cash Out or trade."

Back the draw @ 3.45

Sunderland v Southampton
Saturday, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Sunderland
Extreme winds and rain spared Sunderland a trip to Manchester City in midweek - though the title favourites' downturn in form possibly made Wednesday night the ideal time to go to the Etihad. Whatever, after a good few weeks, Sunderland find themselves back in the bottom three of the Premier League and with a difficult run coming up in the top-flight. A Capital One Cup final awaits in March and Betfair customers seem to be questioning how much they want an FA Cup run - the Black Cats are at home on Saturday lunchtime yet are outsiders to win the game and a far longer price to win the Cup than their opponents.

Apart from injured striker Steven Fletcher and suspended defender Wes Brown, manager Gus Poyet has all his first team riches to select from.

Southampton
Saints' impressive season continued with a hard-fought 1-0 win at Hull on Tuesday night. With Artuc Boruc back in goal and Adam Lallana, Jay Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert upfront, Mauricio Pochettino's team combine a highly effective defence with incisive attack and are a match for any team on their day. After a dip in December, Southampton look back to their best - they've not lost a match since new year's day when Chelsea won 3-0 at St Mary's.

Pochettino will be without Dejan Lovren and Gaston Ramirez due to ankle injuries.

Match Odds
Do Southampton, at 2.3411/8 away from home to an in-form Premier League team, appeal to you? The answer to that probably depends on whether you think Guy Poyet actually wants to embark on an FA Cup run.

But here's something to think about before you lump on the visiting side - in three games so far this season the two teams have drawn twice with Sunderland winning their Capital One Cup clash 2-1.

The draw and Sunderland are hard to split, both trading at around 3.412/5 and, if pushed, my preference is for the stalemate, even though it would be the last result Poyet would want. As previous fixtures this year show, these two are closely matched and backing the draw would have been a winner two out of the three occasions they have met.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Two of the top-flight's better defences meet here and unders is odds-on at 1.855/6. It's a fair price but not hugely appealing. While 1-1 seems the likeliest scoreline the price on unders seems a little tight to me - Southampton have scored in every game since losing to Chelsea at the turn of the year, a run that includes a 2-2 draw at the Stadium of Light.

The lineups will be extremely revealing and you can expect a big shift towards Southampton if Poyet names a weaker than average XI - but if he doesn't then there's enough juice in the draw price to squeeze out a profit whether you let it ride, Cash Out or trade.

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.45

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