FA Cup / Mike Norman / 04 January 2008 /

"Mystical" Mike Norman looks into his crystal ball to predict the outcome of Sam Allardyce's trip to Stoke

I was sat in my local last night listening to some mates discuss recent sporting events. To the left of me the conversation was about Newcastle's Christmas slump, while to the right the lads were talking about Ricky Hatton's festive binge. "Well at least Hatton had some shots over Christmas", I quipped, to which Bazza (the Geordie fan) replied, "Yeh, and unlike the Boro strikers, he put them away". After a verbal draw, the conversation quickly moved on...

The similarities between Newcastle and Middlesbrough at the moment are quite uncanny. Both had disappointing home defeats in midweek, both are struggling in the Premiership, both have under-pressure managers, and amazingly, both travel to high-flying Championship sides in the FA Cup this weekend. But it's Sam Allardyce that is more likely to join my mate Bazza amongst the jobless statistics come Monday morning, if the Magpies lose to Stoke City on Sunday.

The problem that Newcastle have, and every club barring the big four have for that matter, is that the FA Cup historically gets won by an 'elite' team. The last twelve years have seen either Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool or Manchester United lift the coveted trophy. So few will blame the 'lesser' clubs for fielding weak sides this weekend. Already Steve Coppell has come out and said that he will use Reading's away tie at White Hart Lane to "get the squad connected" - which literally translates as, "I will be playing my reserves".

Of course the fans don't like it. The fans want their club to go all guns blazing in the FA Cup and rightly so. For me you can forget history and statistics that say a big team will win it. There will always be another Wimbledon waiting to shock the competition, and while that possibility is still there, the Newcastles, Middlesbroughs and Readings of this world should be doing their utmost to put the FA Cup in their trophy cabinet.

Another problem 'Big Sam' will encounter this weekend is trying to motivate the foreigners in his squad for a cup competition that was once regarded as the biggest and most prestigious in the world. I have no doubt whatsoever that Newcastle United as a club, and the Geordie fans to a man, will rank the FA Cup as an integral part of their season - whether the likes of Cascapa, Enrique, Beye, Emre, Geremi, Faye, Troisi and Martins do likewise is hugely debatable.

For me, a lot of the magic of the FA Cup vanished when Manchester United refused to defend the trophy they had won in 1999, instead electing to play in the World Club Cup - a decision that I have no doubt was made to enhance the brand of Manchester United globally. That set the tone for what we have today; a club competition that in the eyes of many, ranks way behind the more lucrative league and European competitions.

Having said all that, FA Cup 3rd Round weekend is still one of the best weekends in the sporting calendar, and 32 teams will progress from it. When you're going well in the league, the cup can be a bit of a distraction, a momentum stopper if you like - but it can also be a welcome rest-bite from the pressure cooker that is league football. I doubt a distraction or a rest-bite would be the description used by a few managers in the North-East this weekend, instead, the term 'must win' springs to mind.

At odds of [3.35] Stoke City have an outstanding chance of nudging Sam Allardyce ever closer to the dole queue, though a huge Geordie following will argue otherwise. Newcastle can be backed at [2.34] for the win, but a draw, and another lifeline for Allardyce is the most likely outcome at [3.45]. I'm seeing an end to end game here, with 'Over 3.5 Goals' at [3.5] being a confident selection, and a 2-2 scoreline being a more lucrative one at odds of [15.5].

I don't see there being many shocks this weekend, perhaps Sheffield United [6.4] beating Bolton being an exception - but after Titus Bramble scored back-to-back league goals and his name was uttered in the same sentence as the word 'immense' during the week, then I can confidently say that I've had enough shocks for this season already thank you.

You can sample some great FA Cup moments by clicking here;
https://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=sGZEf4pDSfI

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