FA Cup / Ed Nicholson / 12 February 2009 /

Ed Nicholson turns his attentions to the FA Cup this weekend where he's changed his stance on Fulham and thinks there's a big value bet as Villa travel to Goodison. Best bet: over 2.5 goals in the Everton v Aston Villa match @ [2.36].

Swansea v Fulham

I have been following Fulham's progress in this year's FA Cup more closely than I usually would as I've twice backed the under 2.5 goal option in games in which they have played, and on both occasions I have failed to collect.

Fulham put two past Sheffield Wednesday and four past Kettering - and in both cases conceded at least once in the progress. These score lines (1-2 and 2-4) went against their Premier league record away from home where they continue to find it difficult to create chances and to score goals.

Swansea meanwhile are very difficult to beat at their Liberty Stadium. In the Championship this term they have only lost once in front of their own fans, and no team has drawn more times than the Swans in the league. They are playing well and are currently just two points outside of a play off position.

Swansea have scored 31 times at home - that's the third highest total in the league - and have conceded 15 goals (10th best).

The Swans manager Roberto Martinez is being talked about as a potential Portsmouth manager, so that may be a little unsettling for the Swansea players, but the team is at present on a 15 unbeaten run which has helped Martinez collect the Championship's January manager of the month award.

Swansea and Fulham have both won through to this stage despite playing both their FA Cup games away from home. Whereas Fulham's goal scoring form on the road has generally been poor, Swansea's home form has been terrific of late and I can see goals here.

Swansea's last three home games have seen a 3-0 defeat of Ipswich, a 4-1 thrashing of Preston and and a 2-0 victory over Reading. They have only failed to score on one occasion at home in the league this term.

Recommendation

This will be a hard game for Fulham, one they could easily lose; it's no surprise that the Swans are favourites to win this match at time of writing. But there must be a chance that Fulham will score, and I think Swansea should net too. I make the unders/overs ratio around evens, but I note that the overs are available at 2.36 and that's just too big.

1pt Swansea v Fulham Over 2.5 goals @ [2.36]
0.15pts West Ham v Fulham 1-1 @ [7.2]

Everton v Aston Villa

I simply can't believe the over 2.5 goals price in this match, which either means I am dreadfully wrong in my analysis, or that we have spotted an opportunity to go against the perceived wisdom confident in the knowledge we have a great price! [2.44] on overs is simply too big in my book. The league game in December finished 2-3 - granted, a goal within a minute of kick-off undoubtedly helped the goals flow, but that hasn't been the first time we've seen the goals fly in at Goodison when the Villains have come to town.

League games between these sides at Goodison Park over the last seven years have been 2-3, 2-2,0-1,4-1, 1-1,2-0, 2-1.

Only five Premier League sides have scored more goals at home than Everton this season, while Aston Villa have the best away record of any team in the league. They have won 10 of their 13 matches on the road scoring 22 goals in the process (only Chelsea and Liverpool have scored more times on the road with 23). Villa have conceded 12 goals away from home and there must be every chance that they will fail to keep a clean sheet here as Everton have started to score goals.

Everton have only failed to score at home on three occasions, while their 2008/9 unders/overs ratio in the Premier League when playing at home is 7:6 while Villa's ratio when playing away is also 7:6.

Recommendation:

Villa have plenty of goal scoring options and are playing at a ground they have had plenty of success in the recent past. True, this is a different competition, but I have seen no difference in the way Villa's players approach a cup game compared to a league game. Martin O'Neill has gone on record as saying he wants to give the FA Cup the respect it deserves, and the sides he has put out in recent years suggest he will play his best eleven.

Everton meanwhile are always a threat from a set piece and despite Jo being cup-tied, have that man Tim Cahill in good goalscoring form. I can see both teams netting at least once.

2pts Everton v Aston Villa Over 2.5 goals @ 2.44
0.15pts Everton v Aston Villa 1-1 @ 7.0

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