The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Liverpool

Michael Cox
04 May 2012

Luis Suarez is likely to make runs in behind John Terry

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Cup Finals aren't always thrilling, but they're often interesting tactical battles. Michael Cox considers the approaches of both coaches.

Both teams have scored in just three of the last 18 Cup Finals
‘No’ in Both Sides to Score? At 2.0621/20

Chelsea v Liverpool, Saturday 5:15, ITV1 and ESPN.

Match Odds: Chelsea 2.77/4, Liverpool 3.02/1, The Draw 3.39/4.

This will be the third of four meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea this season, but the first time that Roberto Di Matteo and Kenny Dalglish have faced each other as managers. With no previous meetings draw upon, this is a difficult tactical battle to predict.

Both coaches will be thinking long and hard about their selections upfront. Di Matteo has a choice between Didier Drogba, the Wembley specialist, and Fernando Torres - who looks back on form after his hattrick against QPR last weekend, has started Chelsea's last four league games, and would relish a meeting with his former club.

The two strikers offer very different styles, with Drogba more suited long, direct play, and Torres wanting more intricate passes played into the channels. In truth, Torres at his peak would be better suited to playing against Liverpool's backline, but Drogba is simply a surer bet to perform, and should get a start here. His record in Cup Finals and at Wembley in general is superb, and 8.415/2 for him to open the scoring is a very good bet.

Dalglish's choice is slightly more complex - rather than a straight choice between two players, it's about whether he should field Andy Carroll upfront with Luis Suarez just behind, or use the Uruguayan as the primary striker. Carroll played 90 minutes in midweek against Fulham but had a frustrating time in front of goal, while last weekend Suarez being deployed high up the pitch resulted in his first Premier League hattrick, with three superb goals against Norwich.

Carroll offers a more direct option, but I think Dalglish would be better off telling Suarez to work the channels, and test the pace of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic. Whatever happens, he's likely to play to the right of the pitch near Terry, and the Chelsea captain could be in danger of a card.

Dalglish's decision in that zone is also linked to how many midfielders he wants to play - I think he'll be reluctant to leave a three-against-two situation in that zone, especially as this might give Juan Mata space to roam between the lines. Jordan Henderson might be a key man here - his energy really helped Liverpool when he came on as a substitute in the league meeting between the sides at Stamford Bridge, and I think his mobility could be vital in a game that might be tight, as has a good chance of going to extra-time.

Di Matteo will play 4-2-3-1, though there is a possibility to play an attacking or defensive way in this system - the offensive option would include Frank Lampard deep in midfield alongside a holder, with Mata the chief creator. A more negative approach would involve Mata pushed out to the flank, and Lampard as the highest of three central midfielders, the way Chelsea set out against Barcelona.

Both sides might start the game cautiously. Chelsea are a much more reactive side under Di Matteo than they were under Andre Villas-Boas, and are much more about sporadic counter-attacking and long balls. Liverpool also seem to be at their best when they're not completely dominant in terms of possession - there have been countless home games when they've seen the majority of the ball, yet failed to find the net.

Games against bigger sides seem to suit them, and I think there could be something of a stand-off in the first half. A 0-0 at half-time looks decent at 2.915/8, but I like the look of 'No' in both sides to score at 2.0621/20. Cup Finals rarely see a lot of goals, and only three times in the past 18 finals have both sides score. Odds-against looks good to me.

Liverpool will be the favourite for the corners market, though this depends upon what type of players they use on the flanks - Dalglish might not play with a huge amount of width if Andy Carroll isn't in the side, so it's worth waiting until the line-ups are announced before venturing into this market.

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