Notts County v Oxford City: Back goals as Magpies see off minnows

Ian Lamont
30 November 2017

Kevin Nolan probably won't be looking glum on Saturday afternoon

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Kevin Nolan's side should see off Oxford City in the Saturday lunchtime kick-off, but the League Two leaders need to watch out for players who are underperforming in their league but obviously capable, having beaten Colchester, says Ian Lamont...

"Oxford City boss Mark Jones left out two players against Hereford in the FA Trophy last weekend because they were on four bookings. Plenty of other A Licence coaches up the pyramid would do the same."

Notts County v Oxford City
Kick off Saturday December 2, 12.30pm
BT Sport

In-form home team at home to out-of-form underdog 64 places below them in the English pyramid. It's not easy to see why BT Sport picked this as a potential upset, when more traditionally you would go for minnow (in-form or not) against highly league opponent. Woking v Peterborough or Gateshead v Luton for example. Or Shaw Lane v Mansfield in the previous round.

Broadcasters are relying on a bit of history provided by Opta being overturned: Notts County have lost just one of their last 17 FA Cup home games to non-league teams and indeed just one of their last 13 home games in the competition.

Oxford City's win at Colchester in the last round probably had something to do with the selection of this match. It was City's first win in their 13 FA Cup matches against Football League opposition in their history, Opta remind us.

Lightning striking twice looks a tall order: Notts County, second in League Two, have lost three games this season, none at home. The National League South side have won six times this season - in the league and FA Cup that is.

City boss Mark Jones knows he and his side are up against it, needing a very good day, some luck and then some to win. He even made significant changes in the FA Trophy last week, losing 2-1 at home to Hereford with defender Christian Navarro and Rob Sinclair both left out. Why? Because they each have four bookings and a fifth would mean a suspension.

Plenty of other A Licence coaches up the pyramid would do the same. Skipper Lee Henderson, another centre-back, failed a fitness test. Reece Fleet, another key player, is still injured.

City beat Colchester without Navarro and Fleet - a former Birmingham player renowned for his ability to get forward - while then regular right back Miles Welch-Hayes was recalled afterwards by loan club Bath.

Match Odds

There will be plenty of grit in the Oxford City team, who are 12.011/1 to win: Sinclair left Forest Green in the summer, after their promotion, so will be desperate to prove himself. Welch-Hayes has been replaced at right back with Christian Oxlade-Chamberlain, 19, brother of Liverpool's Alex.

Are Notts County's seasoned pros like defender Matt Tootle going to be put off their stride by a name? It's doubtful. At the other end Jorge Grant's 11 goals are a pointer to his fearless attitude, while Lewis Alessandra and Shola Ameobi have seen far bigger occasions.

So, the double figure odds on the visitors winning seem about right, even if the Magpies, at 1.251/4, have to keep a close eye on Matt Paterson, who scored the only goal in each game as City beat Bognor and Colchester in previous rounds.

He's a former Burton and Southend forward and will enjoy anything that Freddie Grant, the left-back, can feed him from the wing getting forward.

Is it possible that the visitors could hold out for a draw and a lucrative replay? Surely they will be tempted to try to score at some point and that could open up space in their backline.

Over 3.5 goals

With the odds on a Notts County win representing accumulator fodder, we'll have to look elsewhere for a bit of value.

Just like in the last round with Mansfield at Shaw Lane, Notts County might not have everything their way on their opponents' big day. Shaw Lane were 1-1 at one stage. Don't expect this one to stay goalless either, with Jon Stead the favourite to score and the others for County mentioned above very capable too, along with Ryan Yates scoring twice in the last round and the winner also on Saturday against Colchester.

Notts County have an average result of 2-1 in their favour at home. Interestingly only three sides have come off worse than two goals against.

So, sides ranked a lot lower should be seen off. Colchester were defeated 2-1 just a few days ago. They should power on even if their visitors get a goal at some point, especially as County haven't kept a clean sheet in five games. Over 3.5 goals looks the bet at 2.56/4.

Correct Score

Oxford City defeated Colchester 1-0 in the last round, winning away. I can't see lightning striking twice for that result, which you should look for 26.025/1. But is there a chance it could be worth backing them to take the lead then cashing out when they do so, at under 10.09/1?

County to win by their average score of 2-1 is about 5.04/1, surprisingly short, with the layers expecting a slim win for the hosts. I think it could be a touch bigger than that, but 4-0 or 4-1 seems a bit disrespectful to the visitors.

Lightning might strike again for the 3-1 win to the League Two side - like Mansfield did against Shaw Lane - at 10.09/1.

Recommended Bets

Back over 3.5 goals @ 2.56/4
Back Notts County to win 3-1 @ 10.09/1
Back Oxford City to win 1-0 at 26.025/1 as a back to lay to cash out at under 10.09/1

P/L 2017-18

FA Cup +14.5pt

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