Millwall v Watford: Londoners can cause another FA Cup upset

Alan Dudman
28 January 2017

Will Watford manager Walter Mazzarri make plenty of changes this Sunday?

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Millwall have already gained one Premier League scalp in the FA Cup this term, and our man Alan Dudman thinks they can claim another as Neil Harris' men prepare for the visit of Watford in Sunday's fourth round clash...

"The Londoners beat Bournemouth 3-0 in the third round and took advantage of Cherries' boss Eddie Howe making wholesale changes to his starting line-up. Millwall were excellent that day, pressing hard as a unit and winning most of the second-ball tackles."

Back Millwall to beat Watford @ 3.45

Millwall v Watford
Sunday, 12:00
Live on BBC One and BBC HD

Millwall

I fancied the Lions for a top six finish in my League One ante post preview last year, so they are still alive sitting in ninth place. However, they haven't really looked their usual sturdy selves this term - especially defensively, and that's why they are nowhere near the title.

Their form has recently picked up though, and Neil Harris' side are currently seven unbeaten (drawing their previous three league games).

Priced at 250/1 to win the FA Cup on the Sportsbook, Millwall have history in this tournament with a semi-final appearance against Wigan Athletic in 2013, and finalists back in 2004 versus Manchester United.

The Londoners beat Bournemouth 3-0 in the third round and took advantage of Cherries' boss Eddie Howe making wholesale changes to his starting line-up. Millwall were excellent that day, pressing hard as a unit and winning most of the second-ball tackles.

Harris will be without the services of centre-back Shaun Hutchinson, so it's likely that Reading loanee Jake Cooper will play alongside Byron Webster.

Watford

According to Opta stats; Watford have progressed from three of their last four FA Cup games against third-tier teams and have lost only one of their last ten matches against Millwall (W7 D2). However, with a midweek Premier League fixture against Arsenal at the Emirates to follow this encounter, it is highly likely that Hornets' boss Walter Mazzarri will make plenty of changes.

Watford fringe players Jerome Sinclair and Brandon Mason featured in the 2-0 third round victory against Burton Albion. The Brewers were absolutely dreadful that day, and at the time, the Hertfordshire club were in the grip of a long injury list. After the game Mazzari said: "Sometimes it's fundamental to see what we've got at home in our own house and make these young players grow."

Mazzarri has recently signed M'Baye Niang from AC Milan - but he is unlikely to play. Whilst the incoming Mauro Zarate is unavailable due to a ban.

Saturday's 2-2 draw at Bournemouth means that the Hornets are now seven Premier League matches without a win - but that stat is largely irrelevant if Mazzarri goes with an inexperienced line-up here. After all, they were beaten in the first round of the EFL Cup versus Gillingham - therefore cups are do not appear high on the agenda at Vicarage Road.

Match Odds

Usually there would be more of a swing in the market for a Premier League team against a League One outfit, but Watford at 2.427/5 are priced up with a sense of trepidation - and make no mistake, this will be horrible game if Millwall tackle as hard as they did against Bournemouth in the previous round.

The Hornets have won their last two away games in the competition, and they last won three in succession in 1985. I am not that interested in backing them as favourites, as I do not know what sort of team they will send out.

Millwall at 3.45 are probably a bit shorter than I was expecting, but sometimes these games come down to the basics - which team wants it the most, which is why the bet is for the Lions.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Last season Millwall had a very sound defence, but they have been very leaky this term - especially away from home. A record of 28 conceded on the road is in stark contrast to their ledger at The Den - where they have only let in 12 in 13 games. The market reflects this, with 2.021/1 and 1.9010/11 the respective prices.

The Over 2.5 target this term currently reads 13/21 for Neil Harris' team, which is on a par with Watford's even split of 12/12 for that market. Whilst the Lions have kept seven clean sheets in all competitions in 2016/17.

First Goalscorer/To Score

As I am siding with the Millwall shock victory (although the price suggests this is unlikely to be the upset of the round), then I have to look to the Lions' front pairing of Steve Morison and Lee Gregory.

These two form an excellent partnership, as Gregory provides the fancy footwork combined with speed and natural finishing ability. Whilst veteran Morison (who I have seen on a train journey recently and looks anything but a veteran), is a big aerial presence.

This duo have bagged 24 goals between them so far and Morison was superb against Bournemouth in the previous round. He headed in the opener from a corner and made another to secure their smooth passage to this stage.

Recommended Bet

Back Millwall to beat Watford 1pt @ 3.45

For all of betting.betfair's football coverage click here

Alan Dudman's P&L 2016/17

League One: -1.60

FA Cup: +5.60

Bet £10 On ACCAS or Bet Builders and Get a £2 Free Bet

Bet £10 on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders, at minimum combined odds of 2.0 (evens) and once the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £2 free bet. Free bet valid 48 hours on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders. T&Cs apply.