Manchester City v Chelsea: Back another low-scoring game at the Etihad

Mike Norman
14 February 2014

Will Samir Nasri and/or Edin Dzeko have a role to play in City's cup tie at home to Chelsea?

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The second meeting in 12 days between the two Premier League title favourites but this time it's in the FA Cup. Mike Norman previews the game and he believes the game will follow a similar pattern to the one just under a fortnight ago...

"In other words, I'm expecting a really tight affair with both defences on top, meaning Under 2.5 Goals at 2.1411/10 has to be the call."

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10

Manchester City v Chelsea
Saturday, 17:15
Live on ITV 1

Manchester City

When you've scored as many goals as Man City have this term - 115 in 39 games to be exact - failure to score for two games running can only be described as a 'slump' by the Citizens' own high standards.

On Saturday evening Manuel Pellegrini's men will aim to get back on the scoring trail against the side that inflicted City's first home league reversal of the season, a loss that also brought to an end a run of 20 league and cup games without defeat.

But the key question pre-match - as it is with Chelsea - is just who will line up in this FA Cup fifth round tie?

We know Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho will definitely miss the game, but with City facing Barcelona on Tuesday night then perhaps we can expect further changes with the likes of Samir Nasri (back from injury) Joleon Lescott, Micah Richards, Jack Rodwell, James Milner, Stevan Jovetic, and Marcos Lopes getting rare starts.

Chelsea

It's more than two months and 14 games since Chelsea last lost a game and within that sequence they recorded a superb victory over Man City at the Etihad Stadium less than a fortnight ago.

I'm not sure if that win has gone to Jose Mourinho's head but he appears to be on a one-man mission to upset every manager in the country in recent weeks, accusing Pellegrini's side of being lucky this season, accusing Arsene Wenger of being a 'specialist in failure', and going slightly OTT in the mind games department.

So whatever Mourinho says ahead of this game then don't believe a word of it, especially when it comes to team selection. What we do know, or at least I hope we do, is that Chelsea's excellent defensive partnership of Gary Cahill and John Terry will be absent here with both players picking up injuries.

But my hunch is that with Chelsea's next game not being for at least a week then perhaps it will be Mourinho's side that will resemble more near full-strength than City's.

Match Odds

This is a difficult market to have any confidence in without knowing the starting line-ups so perhaps it's best to wait until close to kick-off, or even get involved In-Play.

As things stand Man City are available to back at 2.265/4, which would definitely seem a generous price if they line up as strong as possible given their terrific record at the Etihad Stadium.

But I'm of the belief that it might be Chelsea that will be shortening up once the teams are known, and if forced to have a wager at this stage then it would be the Blues at 3.55/2. The Draw is available to back at 3.613/5.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Two much-changed sides, going for the win at the first time of asking, then an argument can be made for backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9110/11. But I have a feeling that this game will follow a similar path to the league encounter 12 days ago, regardless of the line-ups.

True, Chelsea's victory that night could have been achieved by a greater margin but at the other end Man City rarely threatened. Pellegrini's men were restricted to mostly long range efforts and with no Aguero, and probably one of Edin Dzeko and Alvaro Negredo also sitting out, then it could be a similar story in this cup tie.

I do expect City to be more defensively responsible however, in the sense that they won't commit too many players forward and get caught out at the back like they did in the league match. In other words, I'm expecting a really tight affair with both defences on top, meaning Under 2.5 Goals at 2.1411/10 has to be the call.

Correct Score - Best Cash Out Opportunity

At 14.013/1 to back the 0-0 Correct Score appeals here as I can see both sides starting the game slowly, especially if changes to the usual line-ups have been made, as they look to feel each other out.

In fact I envisage this to be a very tactical affair with both managers' reluctant to show their hand until late on. Obviously a sending off, a penalty, a defensive error - anything like that can throw a huge spanner in the works and lead to an early goal but that's football. But unless something unusual does happen then I'm not expecting a classic encounter.

If the game gets to the interval still goalless then you should be able to Cash Out based on a lay price of around 4.57/2 for the 0-0 scoreline, should you wait until the 60-65th minute then the 0-0 will be down to around the 2.89/5 mark.

In other words, if there isn't an early goal then it's just a matter of when you Cash Out - but that's entirely up to you.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10
Back-to-lay 0-0 Correct Score @ 14.013/1

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